A record-based case-control study of natural background radiation and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other cancers in Great Britain during 1980-2006.

A record-based case-control study of natural background radiation and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other cancers in Great Britain during 1980-2006.
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DOI:
10.1038/leu.2012.151
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发表时间:
2013-01
期刊:
影响因子:
11.4
通讯作者:
Murphy, M. F. G.
Murphy, M. F. G.
中科院分区:
医学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Kendall, G. M.;Little, M. P.;Wakeford, R.;Bunch, K. J.;Miles, J. C. H.;Vincent, T. J.;Meara, J. R.;Murphy, M. F. G.

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我们进行了一项大型的基于记录的病例对照研究,测试儿童癌症和自然背景辐射之间的关系。1980-2006年期间在英国出生和诊断的病例(27447例)和匹配的无癌症对照(36793例)来自国家儿童肿瘤登记处。辐射照射估计母亲的住所在孩子的出生从国家数据库,使用县地区平均伽马射线,预测地图的基础上国内测量的地质边界分组氡。儿童白血病的超额相对危险度为12%(95%CI 3,22;双侧p=0.01),每毫西弗的γ辐射红骨髓累积剂量;氡的类似相关性不显著,超额相对危险度为3%(95%CI −4,11; p=0.35)。其他儿童癌症的相关性在两种暴露中均不显著。过度风险是不敏感的调整措施的社会经济地位。在这项具有合理把握度的研究中报告的统计学显著性白血病风险(把握度约为50%)与高剂量率预测一致。实质性偏倚不太可能,我们无法确定混淆可能合理解释相关性的机制,我们认为可能是因果关系。该研究支持将高剂量率风险模型外推至自然背景照射水平的长期照射。
We conducted a large record-based case-control study testing associations between childhood cancer and natural background radiation. Cases (27 447) born and diagnosed in Great Britain during 1980–2006 and matched cancer-free controls (36 793) were from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours. Radiation exposures were estimated for mother’s residence at the child’s birth from national databases, using the County District mean for gamma-rays, and a predictive map based on domestic measurements grouped by geological boundaries for radon. There was 12% excess relative risk (95% CI 3, 22; 2-sided p=0.01) of childhood leukaemia per millisievert of cumulative red-bone-marrow dose from gamma-radiation; the analogous association for radon was not significant, excess relative risk 3% (95% CI −4, 11; p=0.35). Associations for other childhood cancers were not significant for either exposure. Excess risk was insensitive to adjustment for measures of socio-economic status. The statistically significant leukaemia risk reported in this reasonably-powered study (power ~50%) is consistent with high dose-rate predictions. Substantial bias is unlikely, and we cannot identify mechanisms by which confounding might plausibly account for the association, which we regard as likely to be causal. The study supports the extrapolation of high dose-rate risk models to protracted exposures at natural background exposure levels.
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