Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense
Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense
复制标题
南极快速动态对海平面预测和沿海防洪的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-017-2039-4
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
K. Keller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Wong;A. Bakker;K. Keller
管理未来海平面上升带来的风险的战略取决于对内在不确定性的正确描述。主要的不确定性之一是，随着全球气温的上升，南极冰盖的大部分可能会迅速解体。这可能会在未来几个世纪导致海平面上升几米。以前的研究通常对两个相互关联的问题保持沉默：(I)对海平面上升的这种“快速动态”贡献的概率估计是什么？(2)对管理沿海洪灾风险的战略有何影响？在这里，我们给出了海平面上升到2100的概率预测和预测。快速动力机制可以用一个简单的参数来近似，其目的是允许仔细量化其对海平面上升的贡献的不确定性。我们估计，全球气温上升1.9至3.1摄氏度与南极快速解体相吻合，这些贡献导致本世纪海平面上升21-74摄氏度(5%-95%，典型集中路径8.5)。我们使用一个简单的海岸防御成本-收益分析，在一次教学练习中演示了忽视这一机制和相关的不确定性可能(I)导致战略严重达不到保护目标，(Ii)增加预期的净成本。
Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. Previous studies have typically been silent on two coupled questions: (i) What are probabilistic estimates of this “fast dynamic” contribution to sea-level rise? (ii) What are the implications for strategies to manage coastal flooding risks? Here, we present probabilistic hindcasts and projections of sea-level rise to 2100. The fast dynamic mechanism is approximated by a simple parameterization, designed to allow for a careful quantification of the uncertainty in its contribution to sea-level rise. We estimate that global temperature increases ranging from 1.9 to 3.1 °C coincide with fast Antarctic disintegration, and these contributions account for sea-level rise of 21–74 cm this century (5–95% range, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We use a simple cost-benefit analysis of coastal defense to demonstrate in a didactic exercise how neglecting this mechanism and associated uncertainty can (i) lead to strategies which fall sizably short of protection targets and (ii) increase the expected net costs.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Jevrejeva, S.;Grinsted, A.;Moore, J. C.
通讯作者：
Moore, J. C.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Slangen, A. B. A.;Carson, M.;Stammer, D.
通讯作者：
Stammer, D.