All grown up? The fate after 15 years of a quarter of a million UK firms born in 1998.
All grown up? The fate after 15 years of a quarter of a million UK firms born in 1998.
复制标题
都长大了吗？在1998年出生的英国一百万个公司中，有15年后的15年后的命运。
DOI：
10.1007/s00191-017-0549-x
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Hart M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anyadike-Danes M;Hart M
企业成长理论处于一种相当不令人满意的状态。然而，对近年来可用的大型公司级数据集的分析使我们能够开始建立一个证据基础，反过来，可以用来支持更令人满意的理论的发展。在这里，我们研究了1998年出生的23.9万家英国私营企业的前15年。第一个，也是非常惊人的发现是死亡率的巨大力量。到15岁时，1998年出生的英国公司中有90%已经倒闭，而对于那些存活到15岁的公司来说，死亡的风险仍然是每年10%左右。死亡的几率以一种有趣的方式与公司的规模和增长有关。虽然15岁后的危险率在很大程度上与出生时的体型无关，但它受到当前（14岁）体型的强烈影响。特别是，雇员人数超过5人的公司在下一年倒闭的可能性是雇员少于5人的公司的一半。第二个重要的发现是，大多数公司，即使是那些存活到15年的公司，也不会有太大的增长。到15岁时，26,000名幸存者中有一半以上的人仍然不到五份工作。换句话说，2.6万名幸存者中的大多数人的成长轨迹——我们称之为“成长轨迹”——相当平坦。然而，在那些成长起来的公司中，天生规模较小的公司比天生规模较大的公司发展得更快。另一个惊人的发现是，增长主要集中在前五年。虽然增长确实在持续，甚至持续到15岁，但在5岁之后，每年只涉及相对较小比例的公司。最后，有两类幸存者对创造就业做出了重要贡献。有些人出生时相对较大（拥有超过20个工作岗位），尽管他们的增长率相当温和。然而，更引人注目的是，有一小部分公司出生时规模很小，工作岗位少于5个（约占所有幸存者的5%），这些公司贡献了相当大比例（超过三分之一）的15岁前新增工作岗位。
The theory of firm growth is in a rather unsatisfactory state. However, the analysis of large firm-level datasets which have become available in recent years allows us to begin building an evidence base which can, in turn, be used to underpin the development of more satisfactory theory. Here we study the 239 thousand UK private sector firms born in 1998 over their first 15 years of life. A first, and quite striking, finding is the extraordinary force of mortality. By age 15, 90% of the UK firms born in 1998 are dead, and, for those surviving to age 15, the hazard of death is still about 10% a year. The chance of death is related to the size and growth of firms in an interesting way. Whilst the hazard rate after 15 years is largely independent of size at birth, it is strongly affected by the current (age 14) size. In particular, firms with more than five employees are half as likely to die in the next year as firms with less than five employees. A second important finding is that most firms, even those which survive to age 15, do not grow very much. By age 15 more than half the 26,000 survivors still have less than five jobs. In other words, the growth paths – what we call the ‘growth trajectories’ – of most of the 26,000 survivors are pretty flat. However, of the firms that do grow, firms born smaller grow faster than those born larger. Another striking finding is that growth is heavily concentrated in the first five years. Whilst growth does continue, even up to age 15, each year after age five it involves only a relatively small proportion of firms. Finally, there are two groups of survivors which contribute importantly to job creation. Some are those born relatively large (with more than 20 jobs) although their growth rate is quite modest. More striking though, is a very small group of firms born very small with less than five jobs (about 5% of all survivors) which contribute a substantial proportion (more than one third) of the jobs added to the cohort total by age 15.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
EVANS, DS
通讯作者：
EVANS, DS
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Decker, Ryan;Haltiwanger, John;Miranda, Javier
通讯作者：
Miranda, Javier
影响因子：
8.7
作者：
Coad, Alex;Frankish, Julian;Storey, David J.
通讯作者：
Storey, David J.
影响因子：
13.7
作者：
DUNNE, T;ROBERTS, MJ;SAMUELSON, L
通讯作者：
SAMUELSON, L
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Davidsson, Per;Achtenhagen, Leona;Naldi, Lucia
通讯作者：
Naldi, Lucia