Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures
Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures
复制标题
规划更加不确定的未来时的制度问题
DOI：
10.1007/s11116-017-9805-z
复制
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
N. McDonald
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Marsden;N. McDonald
未来的出行需求始终难以估量。最近交通量增长放缓或停滞的趋势，加上人口、经济和技术的重大变化，使这项任务更加复杂。这对规划工作提出了重大挑战，因为决策往往是基于基础设施投资的效益，而基础设施投资的累积期长达60年。与人们对未来出行方式及其可能需要满足的需求类型的不断变化的想法相反，预测未来出行需求的做法在很大程度上保持不变，由此产生的决策过程也是如此。设想方案规划等思考未来的替代方法是存在的，但在运输部门的应用较为有限。本文探讨了机构的问题，围绕的目的，实践和障碍，改变预测和决策的方法，通过探索的实践状态，在英国借鉴采访23从业者。借鉴霍尔在政策变化方面的工作，研究发现，围绕交通投资和交通增长之间的关系建立了一个强有力的政策范式。自经济衰退以来，这一点得到了加强，人们越来越关注运输与创造就业之间的关系。今天使用的预测方法是一个复杂的决策机构的重要组成部分，反映了专门的政策领域，如运输。在承认，代表和沟通的不确定性的挑战被确定离开规划愿景和规划实践之间的日益紧张。最后，我们反思了一些事件，这些事件可能会刺激我们更广泛地重新规划未来的运输计划，同时拥抱关键的不确定性。
Future travel demand has always been difficult to estimate. Recent trends of a slow down or stagnation in traffic growth combined with substantial demographic, economic, and technological shifts further complicate that task. This poses a significant planning challenge given that decision-making is often based on the benefits of infrastructure investments which accrue over periods as long as 60 years. In contrast to the changing ideas around what mobility in the future will look like and the types of demand it may need to service, the practice of forecasting future travel demand remains largely unchanged as do the decision-making processes which flow from this. Alternative approaches to thinking about futures such as scenario planning exist but have had more limited deployment in the transport sector. This paper explores the institutional issues surrounding the purpose, practice and barriers to changing the approaches of forecasting and decision-making through an exploration of the state of practice in the UK drawing on interviews with 23 practitioners. Drawing on Hall’s work on policy change, the research finds that there is a strong policy paradigm built around the relationships between transport investment and traffic growth. This has strengthened since the recession with an increased focus on the relationship between transport and job creation. The forecasting approaches in use today are an important part of a complex decision-making apparatus reflective of specialized policy arenas like transport. Challenges in acknowledging, representing and communicating uncertainty are identified leaving a growing tension between planning visions and planning practice. We conclude by reflecting on events which may stimulate a broader reframing of how we plan for transport futures whilst embracing key uncertainties.
应付气候变化目标：交通部门的多层次治理视角
影响因子：
7.1
作者：
Marsden G
通讯作者：
Marsden G
悬而未决：复杂的社会技术系统中的绿色空中交通管制和基础设施锁定的障碍
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Spinardi G
通讯作者：
Spinardi G