Climate, deer, rodents, and acorns as determinants of variation in lyme-disease risk.
Climate, deer, rodents, and acorns as determinants of variation in lyme-disease risk.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pbio.0040145
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发表时间：
2006-06
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Keesing F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ostfeld RS;Canham CD;Oggenfuss K;Winchcombe RJ;Keesing F
人类接触媒介传播的人畜共患病原体的风险是媒介数量和感染流行率的函数。我们在美国莱姆病震中（纽约达切斯县）东部落叶林的几块田间地块上评估了 13 年以来莱姆病风险的决定因素（若虫肩胛硬蜱的密度和伯氏疏螺旋体感染流行率）。我们使用模型比较方法，在简单和多元回归模型中同时测试环境生长季节温度、降水量、鹿（Odocoileus virginianus）丰度的两个指数以及白足鼠（Peromyscus leucopus）、东部花栗鼠（Tamias striatus）和橡子（Quercus spp.）的密度在预测昆虫学风险中的重要性。鹿丰度指数没有预测能力，当年降水量和上年气温对昆虫学风险影响较弱。对当年风险的最强预测因素是前一年的老鼠和花栗鼠的丰度以及两年前橡子的丰度。在任何情况下，鹿或气候变量的纳入都不会提高基于啮齿动物、橡子或两者的模型的预测能力。我们得出的结论是，接触莱姆病的昆虫学风险的年际变化与蜱虫媒介未成熟阶段关键宿主的先前丰度以及这些宿主的关键食物资源呈正相关。 一项对蜱动态的长期研究同时评估了多个生态变量对莱姆病风险的影响，并强烈暗示了啮齿动物宿主及其食物资源的作用。
Risk of human exposure to vector-borne zoonotic pathogens is a function of the abundance and infection prevalence of vectors. We assessed the determinants of Lyme-disease risk (density and Borrelia burgdorferi-infection prevalence of nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks) over 13 y on several field plots within eastern deciduous forests in the epicenter of US Lyme disease (Dutchess County, New York). We used a model comparison approach to simultaneously test the importance of ambient growing-season temperature, precipitation, two indices of deer (Odocoileus virginianus) abundance, and densities of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and acorns ( Quercus spp.), in both simple and multiple regression models, in predicting entomological risk. Indices of deer abundance had no predictive power, and precipitation in the current year and temperature in the prior year had only weak effects on entomological risk. The strongest predictors of a current year's risk were the prior year's abundance of mice and chipmunks and abundance of acorns 2 y previously. In no case did inclusion of deer or climate variables improve the predictive power of models based on rodents, acorns, or both. We conclude that interannual variation in entomological risk of exposure to Lyme disease is correlated positively with prior abundance of key hosts for the immature stages of the tick vector and with critical food resources for those hosts. A long-term study of tick dynamics simultaneously assesses the impact of multiple ecological variables on Lyme disease risk and strongly implicates a role for rodent hosts and their food resources.
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影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Jordan, RA;Schulze, TL
通讯作者：
Schulze, TL
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Dohm, DJ;Rowton, ED;Turell, MJ
通讯作者：
Turell, MJ
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Barbour, AG
通讯作者：
Barbour, AG
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Brownstein, John S.;Holford, Theodore R.;Fish, Durland
通讯作者：
Fish, Durland
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
DANIELS, TJ;FISH, D;SCHWARTZ, I
通讯作者：
SCHWARTZ, I