Estimating mortality associated with seasonal influenza among adults aged 65 years and above in China from 2011 to 2016: A systematic review and model analysis.
Estimating mortality associated with seasonal influenza among adults aged 65 years and above in China from 2011 to 2016: A systematic review and model analysis.
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2011-2016年中国65岁及以上成年人季节性流感死亡率估算：系统评价和模型分析
DOI：
10.1111/irv.13067
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发表时间：
2023-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Yang, Juan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dong, Kaige;Gong, Hui;Zhong, Guangjie;Deng, Xiaowei;Tian, Yuyang;Wang, Minghan;Yu, Hongjie;Yang, Juan
流感疾病负担的估算对于优化针对季节性流感的干预策略至关重要。本研究旨在评估2011年至2016年中国大陆65岁及以上老年人与流感相关的呼吸和循环系统（R&C）和全因（AC）死亡率。通过系统回顾，我们收集了中国大陆特定城市/省份65岁及以上老年人与流感相关的过量R&C和AC死亡率数据。考虑到流感病毒活动性、人口统计学、经济学、气象学和卫生服务等潜在变量，拟合广义线性模型以估计各省和全国老年人相应的超额死亡率。所有统计分析均采用R软件进行。在中英文数据库中共纳入9154篇研究，在排除重复、筛选标题、摘要和全文后，有11篇（0.1%）纳入定量综合。使用广义线性模型，估计65岁及以上老年人流感相关的年度平均R&C和AC死亡率分别为每10万人111.8 （95% CI: 92.8-141.1）和151.6 （95% CI: 127.6-179.3）。在30个省份中，观察到老年人与流感相关的过度R&C和AC死亡率有很大差异。2011年至2016年，在中国65岁及以上的老年人中，流感与R&C和AC死亡率显著升高有关。这一分析为将流感疫苗引入中国老年人国家免疫规划提供了有价值的证据。
Estimation of influenza disease burden is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies against seasonal influenza. This study aimed to estimate influenza‐associated excess respiratory and circulatory (R&C) and all‐cause (AC) mortality among older adults aged 65 years and above in mainland China from 2011 to 2016. Through a systematic review, we collected influenza‐associated excess R&C and AC mortality data of older adults aged 65 years and above for specific cities/provinces in mainland China. Generalized linear models were fitted to estimate the corresponding excess mortality for older adults by province and nationwide, accounting for the potential variables of influenza virus activity, demography, economics, meteorology, and health service. All statistical analyses were conducted using R software. A total of 9154 studies were identified in English and Chinese databases, and 11 (0.1%) were included in the quantitative synthesis after excluding duplicates and screening the title, abstract, and full text. Using a generalized linear model, the estimates of annual national average influenza‐associated excess R&C and AC mortality among older adults aged 65 years and above were 111.8 (95% CI: 92.8–141.1) and 151.6 (95% CI: 127.6–179.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. Large variations in influenza‐associated excess R&C and AC mortality among older adults were observed among 30 provinces. Influenza was associated with substantial excess R&C and AC mortality among older adults aged 65 years and above in China from 2011 to 2016. This analysis provides valuable evidence for the introduction of the influenza vaccine into the National Immunization Program for the elderly in China.
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中国大陆与流感相关的疾病负担：系统评价和荟萃分析。
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