Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming.
Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms8188
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发表时间：
2015-05-18
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Huang, Rong-Hui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Ping;Lin, I-I;Chou, Chia;Huang, Rong-Hui
热带气旋是一种危险的自然灾害。由于热带气旋的加强在很大程度上受大气和海洋环境的控制，这些环境的变化可能会导致热带气旋强度的变化。表层和次表层海洋条件的变化都会影响热带气旋的加强。关于全球变暖，已经对次表层海洋进行了最低限度的勘探。在这里，我们研究了22个最先进的气候模式所预测的未来次表层海洋环境变化，并提出了次表层海洋对未来热带气旋加剧的抑制作用。在全球变暖的情况下，热带气旋重要区域的次表层垂直温度廓线可能会变陡，这可能有助于在未来热带气旋的加强过程中产生更强的海洋耦合(冷却)效应。关于热带气旋，未来的次表层海洋环境可能比现有的次表层海洋环境更具抑制性。这种抑制作用在空间上并不均匀，在某些局部地区可能很弱。在气候变暖的影响下，大气和海洋环境的变化可能会影响热带气旋的强度。在这里，作者分析了22个最先进的气候模型，并表明未来的次表层海洋环境可能会进一步抑制龙卷风的加剧。
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. Changing atmospheric and oceanic environments under the effects of a warming climate are likely to influence the intensity of tropical cyclones. Here, the authors analyse 22 state-of-the-art climate models and show that future subsurface ocean environments might further suppress cyclone intensification.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Lin, I. -I.;Pun, Iam-Fei;Wu, Chun-Chieh
通讯作者：
Wu, Chun-Chieh
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Bender, Morris A.;Knutson, Thomas R.;Held, Isaac M.
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Held, Isaac M.
影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
Capotondi, Antonietta;Alexander, Michael A.;Scott, James D.
通讯作者：
Scott, James D.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Gualdi, S.;Scoccimarro, E.;Navarra, A.
通讯作者：
Navarra, A.