Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.
Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.
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DOI：
10.1111/geb.12512
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发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Beaumont L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dullinger I;Wessely J;Bossdorf O;Dawson W;Essl F;Gattringer A;Klonner G;Kreft H;Kuttner M;Moser D;Pergl J;Pyšek P;Thuiller W;van Kleunen M;Weigelt P;Winter M;Dullinger S;Beaumont L
植物入侵通常在最初引入之后有相当长的延迟。因此，一个地区目前的非本土植物区系可能包含尚未归化的物种，但未来可能会归化，特别是如果气候变化解除了对物种传播的限制。在欧洲，非本土园艺植物代表着一个巨大的潜在未来入侵者池。在这里，我们评估了这个物种池的归化风险，以及在气候变暖的情况下它可能会发生什么变化。欧洲。我们从一组非原生的欧洲园林植物中选择了世界上任何地方归化的所有物种，但还没有在欧洲。对于这783个物种的子集，我们使用物种分布模型来评估它们在不同气候变化情景下的潜在欧洲范围。此外，我们通过将气候适宜性预测与可用于观赏植物种植的区域地图相结合，定义了这些物种归化风险的地理热点。在目前的气候条件下，欧洲5%的 >； 地区已经有165个物种找到了合适的生存条件。尽管气候变化大大增加了许多物种的潜在生存范围，但也有一些物种预计会在气候变化的情况下失去气候适宜的区域，特别是北方和地中海生物群的原生物种。总体而言，仅由气候适宜性定义的归化风险热点，或由气候适宜性和适当土地覆盖相结合定义的归化风险热点，预计将分别增加高达102%或%。我们的结果表明，随着气候变暖，欧洲园林植物归化的风险将增加，因此，这些植物入侵带来的负面影响的风险很可能也会增加。因此，提高园艺家对生物入侵可能性的认识是至关重要的，特别是在气候变暖的情况下。
Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non‐native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non‐native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Europe. We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non‐native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.
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影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina
通讯作者：
Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1011728108
发表时间：
2011-01-04
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Essl, Franz;Dullinger, Stefan;Pysek, Petr
通讯作者：
Pysek, Petr
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Bellard C;Thuiller W;Leroy B;Genovesi P;Bakkenes M;Courchamp F
通讯作者：
Courchamp F
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1276
发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hijmans, RJ;Cameron, SE;Jarvis, A
通讯作者：
Jarvis, A
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Duursma DE;Gallagher RV;Roger E;Hughes L;Downey PO;Leishman MR
通讯作者：
Leishman MR