Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity.
Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.abe6522
复制
发表时间：
2021-02-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Antia R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lavine JS;Bjornstad ON;Antia R
在出现一年后，严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）已经变得如此普遍，以至于几乎没有消除的希望。然而，还有几种其他的人类冠状病毒是地方性的，会引起多次再感染，从而产生足够的免疫力来预防严重的成人疾病。通过假设从其已经流行的亲属获得免疫力，Lavine等人开发了一个模型，用于分析SARS-CoV-2进入流行的轨迹。该模型解释了SARS-CoV-2的年龄结构疾病特征，并评估了疫苗接种的影响。从流行病向地方病动态的转变与原发感染的年龄分布向更年轻的年龄组转移有关，而这又取决于病毒传播的速度。更持久的杀菌免疫力将减缓向地方病的转变。根据其产生的免疫反应类型，疫苗可以加速轻度疾病地方性状态的建立。SARS-CoV-2从流行病向地方病动态的转变与原发感染的年龄分布向年轻年龄组的转变有关。我们目前面临的问题是，严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）感染的严重程度在未来几年可能会发生怎样的变化。我们对地方性人类冠状病毒（HCoV）的免疫学和流行病学数据的分析表明，感染阻断免疫力迅速减弱，但减少疾病的免疫力是长期存在的。我们的模型，将这些免疫组件，概括了目前的严重程度的SARS-CoV-2感染和HCoV的良性性质，这表明，一旦达到流行期和主要暴露在儿童时期，SARS-CoV-2可能不会比普通感冒更致命。我们预测一种导致儿童严重疾病的新冠状病毒会有不同的结果。这些结果加强了大流行疫苗推广期间行为遏制的重要性，同时促使我们评估在流行阶段继续接种疫苗的情况。
One year after its emergence, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become so widespread that there is little hope of elimination. There are, however, several other human coronaviruses that are endemic and cause multiple reinfections that engender sufficient immunity to protect against severe adult disease. By making assumptions about acquired immunity from its already endemic relatives, Lavine et al. developed a model with which to analyze the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 into endemicity. The model accounts for SARS-CoV-2's age-structured disease profile and assesses the impact of vaccination. The transition from epidemic to endemic dynamics is associated with a shift in the age distribution of primary infections to younger age groups, which in turn depends on how fast the virus spreads. Longer-lasting sterilizing immunity will slow the transition to endemicity. Depending on the type of immune response it engenders, a vaccine could accelerate establishment of a state of mild disease endemicity. Science, this issue p. 741 The transition from epidemic to endemic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is associated with a shift in the age distribution of primary infections to younger age groups. We are currently faced with the question of how the severity of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly but that disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, SARS-CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. We predict a different outcome for an emergent coronavirus that causes severe disease in children. These results reinforce the importance of behavioral containment during pandemic vaccine rollout, while prompting us to evaluate scenarios for continuing vaccination in the endemic phase.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Kissler, Stephen M.;Tedijanto, Christine;Lipsitch, Marc
通讯作者：
Lipsitch, Marc
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Imai Y;Kuba K;Rao S;Huan Y;Guo F;Guan B;Yang P;Sarao R;Wada T;Leong-Poi H;Crackower MA;Fukamizu A;Hui CC;Hein L;Uhlig S;Slutsky AS;Jiang C;Penninger JM
通讯作者：
Penninger JM
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Kuba K;Imai Y;Rao S;Gao H;Guo F;Guan B;Huan Y;Yang P;Zhang Y;Deng W;Bao L;Zhang B;Liu G;Wang Z;Chappell M;Liu Y;Zheng D;Leibbrandt A;Wada T;Slutsky AS;Liu D;Qin C;Jiang C;Penninger JM
通讯作者：
Penninger JM
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Galanti, Marta;Shaman, Jeffrey
通讯作者：
Shaman, Jeffrey