The inclusion of immediate and lagged climate responses amplifies the effect of climate autocorrelation on long‐term growth rate of populations
The inclusion of immediate and lagged climate responses amplifies the effect of climate autocorrelation on long‐term growth rate of populations
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纳入即时和滞后的气候响应放大了气候自相关对人口长期增长率的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
A. Compagnoni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sanne Evers;T. Knight;A. Compagnoni
气候变率将随着气候变化而增加，因此对于种群生态学家来说，了解其对种群动态的影响是很重要的。已知有四个组成部分介导气候变率的后果：气候变率的大小，气候对生命率的影响大小，生命率之间的协方差和气候的自相关。最近的研究指出了一个潜在的第五个组成部分：生命率在不同的时间范围内对气候做出反应，有些反应更迅速，有些反应滞后。我们使用模拟来量化所有五个组成部分如何修改气候变化对长期人口增长率的影响，这些影响跨越了由预期寿命和胎次定义的一系列生活史。我们使用一个已建立的方法来构造147个生命史的矩阵种群模型。我们的模拟表明，包括不同的时间框架的生命率对气候的反应可以减少或放大气候变率对长期人口增长率的负面影响。当气候自相关为负时，以及当物种寿命较长时，生命率响应的不同时间范围对种群增长的负面影响被放大。合成.现有的文献表明，生命率往往在不同的时间范围内对气候作出反应，研究往往忽略气候自相关。我们的研究结果表明，同时包括这两个因素可以大大增加或减少人口的预期增长率。此外，这种变化的相对幅度随着生活史的世代时间而增加。我们的研究结果是相关的保护，人口预测和人口建模一般。
Climate variability will increase with climate change, and thus it is important for population ecologists to understand its consequences for population dynamics. Four components are known to mediate the consequences of climate variability: the magnitude of climate variability, the effect size of climate on vital rates, covariance between vital rates and autocorrelation in climate. Recent studies have pointed to a potential fifth component: vital rates responding to climate in different timeframes, with some responding more immediately and some having lagged responses. We use simulations to quantify how all five components modify the consequences of climatic variability on long‐term population growth rates across a range of life histories defined by life expectancy and iteroparity. We use an established method to compose Matrix Population Models for 147 life histories. Our simulations show that including different timeframes for vital rates responses to climate can either reduce or amplify the negative influence of climate variability on long‐term population growth rates. The negative effect of different timeframes for vital rates responses on population growth is amplified when climatic autocorrelations are negative, and when species are long‐lived. Synthesis. The existing literature shows that vital rates often respond to climate in different timeframes, and that studies often ignore climate autocorrelation. Our results show that simultaneously including both of these factors can substantially increase or decrease a population's expected growth rate. Moreover, the relative magnitude of this change increases with the generation time of a life history. Our results are relevant to conservation, population forecasts and population modelling in general.
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