Scrub typhus islands in the Taiwan area and the association between scrub typhus disease and forest land use and farmer population density: geographically weighted regression.
Scrub typhus islands in the Taiwan area and the association between scrub typhus disease and forest land use and farmer population density: geographically weighted regression.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-13-191
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发表时间：
2013-04-29
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Yeh HC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tsai PJ;Yeh HC
台湾地区包括台湾的主岛和位于中国南部沿海的几个小岛。台湾东部三分之二的地区是被热带和亚热带植被覆盖的崎岖山脉。台湾西部地区的特点是平坦或平缓起伏的平原。从地理上看，台湾地区的生态和环境是多样的，尽管丛林斑疹伤寒威胁着当地的人口。在本研究中，我们调查了季节和气象因素对10个地方气候区恙虫病发病率的影响。本文分析了台湾地区灌丛斑疹伤寒的空间分布与人工林的相关关系，以及灌丛斑疹伤寒发病率与农场工人人口密度的关系。应用Pearson积矩相关计算了10个局地气候区恙虫病发病率与气象因子的相关性。采用地理加权回归（GWR）方法，对标准化发病率比(SIR)-地区恙虫病响应变量的每个回归点进行了细化和映射。GWR是一种空间回归方法，产生按分析空间单元分解的参数。本研究亦运用GWR检视2005年台湾林地利用类型与农地工人密度的解释变量。在台湾地区，恙虫病流行区主要分布在台湾东南部和山区乡镇，以及澎湖群岛、金门群岛和马头群岛。在这些岛屿以及台湾中西部和西南部的低发病率地区，我们观察到恙虫病的发病率与地表温度有显著的相关性。在流行地区（如台湾东南部和山区）没有发现类似的显著相关性。降水与3个局地气候区（台湾中西部、西南地区、金门群岛）恙虫病发病率呈正相关。相对湿度与台湾西南部和金门群岛的发病率呈正相关。在台湾西南部，降雨日数与发病率呈正相关。日照时数与台湾中西部、金门、马头岛的发病率呈正相关。此外，根据恙虫病发病率的冷暖季节波动，10个局地气候区可分为以下3类：(a) 1型，在5个局地气候区（台湾北部、西北部、东北部、东南部和山区）较为明显；(b)第二类（台湾中西部和西南部地区以及澎湖群岛）；(c)第三类（金门和马头群岛）。在GWR模型中，sir地区灌丛斑疹伤寒的响应变量与2个解释变量（农场工人人口密度和木材管理）呈统计学显著正相关。此外，其他解释变量（游憩林、自然保护区和“其他用途”区域）在台湾不同地区的参数估计显示正或负的符号。参数估计的负信号只出现在国家保护地、人工林和砍伐面积的解释变量上。本研究结果显示，台湾恙虫病可分为3种类型。类型1不受气候影响，而类型2的发生与暖季气温升高正相关，类型3的发生与地表温度升高和日照时间延长正相关。研究结果还显示，在台湾中南部及东南部的山区乡镇地区，灌丛斑斑病较高的SIR值与以下变量有关：农场工人人口密度、木材管理、区域类型（即游憩林、自然保护区或其他用途）。
The Taiwan area comprises the main island of Taiwan and several small islands located off the coast of the Southern China. The eastern two-thirds of Taiwan are characterized by rugged mountains covered with tropical and subtropical vegetation. The western region of Taiwan is characterized by flat or gently rolling plains. Geographically, the Taiwan area is diverse in ecology and environment, although scrub typhus threatens local human populations. In this study, we investigate the effects of seasonal and meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus infection among 10 local climate regions. The correlation between the spatial distribution of scrub typhus and cultivated forests in Taiwan, as well as the relationship between scrub typhus incidence and the population density of farm workers is examined. We applied Pearson’s product moment correlation to calculate the correlation between the incidence of scrub typhus and meteorological factors among 10 local climate regions. We used the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, a type of spatial regression that generates parameters disaggregated by the spatial units of analysis, to detail and map each regression point for the response variables of the standardized incidence ratio (SIR)-district scrub typhus. We also applied the GWR to examine the explanatory variables of types of forest-land use and farm worker density in Taiwan in 2005. In the Taiwan Area, scrub typhus endemic areas are located in the southeastern regions and mountainous townships of Taiwan, as well as the Pescadore, Kinmen, and Matou Islands. Among these islands and low-incidence areas in the central western and southwestern regions of Taiwan, we observed a significant correlation between scrub typhus incidence and surface temperature. No similar significant correlation was found in the endemic areas (e.g., the southeastern region and the mountainous area of Taiwan). Precipitation correlates positively with scrub typhus incidence in 3 local climate regions (i.e., Taiwan’s central western and southwestern regions, and the Kinmen Islands). Relative humidity correlates positively with incidence in Southwestern Taiwan and the Kinmen Islands. The number of wet days correlates positively with incidence in Southwestern Taiwan. The duration of sunshine correlates positively with incidence in Central Western Taiwan, as well as the Kinmen and Matou Islands. In addition, the 10 local climatic regions can be classified into the following 3 groups, based on the warm-cold seasonal fluctuations in scrub typhus incidence: (a) Type 1, evident in 5 local climate regions (Taiwan’s northern, northwestern, northeastern, and southeastern regions, as well as the mountainous area); (b) Type 2 (Taiwan’s central western and southwestern regions, and the Pescadore Islands); and (c) Type 3 (the Kinmen and Matou Islands). In the GWR models, the response variable of the SIR-district scrub typhus has a statistically significantly positive association with 2 explanatory variables (farm worker population density and timber management). In addition, other explanatory variables (recreational forests, natural reserves, and “other purpose” areas) show positive or negative signs for parameter estimates in various locations in Taiwan. Negative signs of parameter estimates occurred only for the explanatory variables of national protectorates, plantations, and clear-cut areas. The results of this study show that scrub typhus in Taiwan can be classified into 3 types. Type 1 exhibits no climatic effect, whereas the incidence of Type 2 correlates positively with higher temperatures during the warm season, and the incidence of Type 3 correlates positively with higher surface temperatures and longer hours of sunshine. The results also show that in the mountainous township areas of Taiwan’s central and southern regions, as well as in Southeastern Taiwan, higher SIR values for scrub typhus are associated with the following variables: farm worker population density, timber management, and area type (i.e., recreational forest, natural reserve, or other purpose).
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DOI：
10.3102/10769986027001077
发表时间：
2002-03-01
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Thissen, D;Steinberg, L;Kuang, D
通讯作者：
Kuang, D
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2002.67.162
发表时间：
2002-08-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Ogawa, M;Hagiwara, T;Masukawa, K
通讯作者：
Masukawa, K
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Kuo, C. C.;Huang, C. L.;Wang, H. C.
通讯作者：
Wang, H. C.
DOI：
10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.5.436
发表时间：
2010-09-01
期刊：
Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kim, Si Heon;Jang, Jae Yeon
通讯作者：
Jang, Jae Yeon
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
TRAUB, R;WISSEMAN, CL
通讯作者：
WISSEMAN, CL