Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences
Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences
复制标题
主要风险，不确定的结果：使集合预报为多个受众服务
作者：
R. Carr;B. Montz;K. Semmens;Keri Maxfield;Samantha N Connolly;P. Ahnert;R. Shedd;J. Elliott
当一个社区可能出现极端的河流水位时，天气和水文预报的有效沟通对于保护生命和财产至关重要。居民、应急人员和水资源管理人员需要及时决定如何以及何时做好准备。预测中的不确定性是这种决策的一个关键组成部分，但往往对公众和专业人员理解预测产品构成混淆因素。美国国家气象局水文综合预报系统（HEFS）的一套新产品提供了从6小时到1年的短期和长期预报，并显示了水文预报的不确定性。为了了解不同的观众如何使用和解释集合预报显示了一系列的水文预报的可能性，一个研究项目进行了使用基于爱达荷州的焦点小组和调查，社区居民，应急管理人员和水资源管理人员在西弗吉尼亚州和马里兰州。该研究评估了HEFS产品的实用性，确定了正确理解产品的障碍，并建议修改产品设计，以提高一系列用户的可理解性和可访问性。与应急管理人员和水资源管理人员相比，居民用户对HEFS的反应存在差异，公众对所有版本的反应都不太好。应急管理人员更喜欢修订后的HEFS产品，但建议进行额外的更改，这些更改已被纳入。交互式文本框和预报员注释等功能进一步增强了产品的实用性和易懂性。
When extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protecting life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource managers need to make timely decisions about how and when to prepare. Uncertainty in forecasting is a critical component of this decision-making, but often poses a confounding factor for public and professional understanding of forecast products. A new suite of products from the National Weather Service’s Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) provides short- and long-range forecasts, ranging from 6 h to 1 yr, and shows uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. To understand how various audiences use and interpret ensemble forecasts showing a range of hydrologic forecast possibilities, a research project was conducted using scenario-based focus groups and surveys with community residents, emergency managers, and water resource managers in West Virginia and Maryland. The research assessed the utility of the HEFS products, identified barriers to proper understanding of the products, and suggested modifications to product design that could improve the understandability and accessibility for a range of users. There was a difference between the residential users’ reactions to the HEFS compared to the emergency managers and water resource managers, with the public reacting less favorably to all versions. The emergency managers preferred the revised HEFS products but had suggestions for additional changes, which were incorporated. Features such as interactive text boxes and forecaster’s notes further enhanced the utility and understandability of the products.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
F. Pappenberger;E. Stephens;J. Thielen;P. Salamon;D. Demeritt;Schalk Jan Andel;F. Wetterhall;L. Alfieri
通讯作者：
F. Pappenberger;E. Stephens;J. Thielen;P. Salamon;D. Demeritt;Schalk Jan Andel;F. Wetterhall;L. Alfieri
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Demeritt D
通讯作者：
Demeritt D