Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting
Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting
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在业务洪水预报中通信和使用集合的挑战
DOI：
10.1002/met.194
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Demeritt D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Demeritt D
随着天气预报业务的发展趋势，集合预报系统（EPS）现在越来越成为规范，洪水预报员开始尝试使用类似的集合方法。迄今为止，大部分工作都集中在开发耦合降雨径流系统的重大技术挑战上，以代表预测未来洪水所涉及的全部不确定性。因此，很少有人注意到EPS洪水预报的沟通和最终使用。借鉴采访和其他研究业务洪水预报员来自欧洲各地，本文强调了一些挑战，沟通和使用集合洪水预报业务。结果表明，业务洪水预报员了解的技能，业务限制，EPS产品的信息价值在各种不同的，有时是矛盾的方式。尽管预报机构努力设计有效的方法将EPS预报传达给非专家，但业务洪水预报员通常对预报接收者理解或适当使用它们的能力持怀疑态度。有人认为，更好的培训和业务洪水预报员和EPS系统设计师之间的密切联系，可以帮助确保EPS预测所代表的不确定性是最合适的，对他们的目标消费者有意义的方式表示，但一些基本的政治和制度的挑战，使用合奏，例如对假警报的不同态度，以及在预报不佳或预报错误的情况下对责任管理的不同态度。皇家气象学会
Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, flood forecasters are beginning to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the effort to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall‐runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Drawing on interviews and other research with operational flood forecasters from across Europe, this paper highlights a number of challenges to communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts operationally. It is shown that operational flood forecasters understand the skill, operational limitations, and informational value of EPS products in a variety of different and sometimes contradictory ways. Despite the efforts of forecasting agencies to design effective ways to communicate EPS forecasts to non‐experts, operational flood forecasters were often skeptical about the ability of forecast recipients to understand or use them appropriately. It is argued that better training and closer contacts between operational flood forecasters and EPS system designers can help ensure the uncertainty represented by EPS forecasts is represented in ways that are most appropriate and meaningful for their intended consumers, but some fundamental political and institutional challenges to using ensembles, such as differing attitudes to false alarms and to responsibility for management of blame in the event of poor or mistaken forecasts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
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影响因子：
3
作者：
J. Thielen;J. Schaake;R. Hartman;R. Buizza
通讯作者：
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
H. Cloke;J. Thielen;F. Pappenberger;Sebastien Nobert;G. Bálint;Christina Edlund;Ari Koistinen;C. D. Saint;E. Sprokkereef;Christian Viel;P. Salamon;R. Buizza
通讯作者：
R. Buizza
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1980
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
A. H. Murphy;S. Lichtenstein;Baruch Fischhoff;R. L. Winkler
通讯作者：
R. L. Winkler