False-positive results in cancer epidemiology: a plea for epistemological modesty.
False-positive results in cancer epidemiology: a plea for epistemological modesty.
复制标题
假阳性导致癌症流行病学：认识论谦虚的恳求。
DOI：
10.1093/jnci/djn191
复制
发表时间：
2008-07-16
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
Blot, William J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boffetta, Paolo;McLaughlin, Joseph K.;La Vecchia, Carlo;Tarone, Robert E.;Lipworth, Loren;Blot, William J.
假阳性结果是在测试癌症和其他人类疾病决定因素的假设的科学过程中固有的。尽管我们对人类癌症病因学的了解大多来自于精心进行的流行病学研究，但流行病学越来越受到批评，因为它产生的发现往往在媒体上引起轰动，在随后的研究中无法得到支持。在此，我们描述了癌症流行病学中可能出现假阳性结果的例子，并讨论了可能出现这种结果的条件。我们建议一般的指导方针或原则，包括批准编辑政策，要求突出列出研究警告，这可能有助于减少误导性结果的报告。对流行病学研究结果在认识上更加谦逊，将大大有助于减少假阳性结果对有限研究资源的分配、对癌症病因和预防知识的进步以及对流行病学科学声誉的有害影响，并将有助于防止媒体和公众对结果的过度简化解释。
False-positive results are inherent in the scientific process of testing hypotheses concerning the determinants of cancer and other human illnesses. Although much of what is known about the etiology of human cancers has arisen from well-conducted epidemiological studies, epidemiology has been increasingly criticized for producing findings that are often sensationalized in the media and fail to be upheld in subsequent studies. Herein we describe examples from cancer epidemiology of likely false-positive findings and discuss conditions under which such results may occur. We suggest general guidelines or principles, including the endorsement of editorial policies requiring the prominent listing of study caveats, which may help reduce the reporting of misleading results. Increased epistemological humility regarding findings in epidemiology would go a long way to diminishing the detrimental effects of false-positive results on the allocation of limited research resources, on the advancement of knowledge of the causes and prevention of cancer, and on the scientific reputation of epidemiology and would help to prevent oversimplified interpretations of results by the media and the public.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Benson, K;Hartz, AJ
通讯作者：
Hartz, AJ
年轻女性的DDT和乳腺癌：有关暴露年龄的重要性的新数据。
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Cohn BA;Wolff MS;Cirillo PM;Sholtz RI
通讯作者：
Sholtz RI
DOI：
10.1016/0197-2456(86)90046-2
发表时间：
1986-09-01
期刊：
CONTROLLED CLINICAL TRIALS
影响因子：
--
作者：
DERSIMONIAN, R;LAIRD, N
通讯作者：
LAIRD, N
DOI：
10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x
发表时间：
1995-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
BENJAMINI, Y;HOCHBERG, Y
通讯作者：
HOCHBERG, Y
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Beral, V;Bull, D;Reeves, G
通讯作者：
Reeves, G