A ground-up approach to estimate the likelihood of business interruption
A ground-up approach to estimate the likelihood of business interruption
复制标题
估计业务中断可能性的彻底方法
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101314
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Gardoni, Paolo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nocera, Fabrizio;Gardoni, Paolo
关键基础设施（如交通、水、电力、废水和电信）为社区提供货物、服务和资源的运输，这对经济活动至关重要。建筑物、桥梁和基础设施的其他结构和组成部分可能会受到自然和人为危害的影响，从而可能导致基础设施功能的降低或丧失。业务可能会因以下原因而中断：（i）业务财产和设施的直接损坏;（ii）支持关键基础设施的功能减少或丧失;或（iii）对社会系统的影响，从而影响特定业务和支持业务以及客户的劳动力可用性。目前的方法不模拟业务属性和支持基础设施的功能，一般只获得业务中断损失的经验估计。这种预测可能不适用于不同的企业、支持基础设施、社会系统、地点和灾害;而且它们通常不会反映由于缓解战略和干预措施而可能造成的建筑环境的变化。本文提出了一种数学公式，克服了目前的方法的局限性。拟议的配方模型和量化的业务中断的可能性与地面的方法，将依赖于物理结构，基础设施和社会系统的业务运营。本文说明了拟议的制定调查的一个例子食品零售店在海滨，俄勒冈州受到地震灾害的业务中断。
Critical infrastructure (such as transportation, water, electric power, wastewater, and telecommunications) provides the conveyance of goods, services, and resources to communities, which are vital for economic activities. Buildings, bridges, and other structures and components of the infrastructure might be subject to natural and anthropogenic hazards, which may lead to a reduction or loss of functionality of infrastructure. Businesses may experience disruptions because of (i) direct damage to the business properties and facilities, (ii) reduction or loss of functionality of the supporting critical infrastructure, or (iii) impact on social systems affecting the availability of the workforce at a specific business and supporting businesses as well as customers. Current approaches do not model the functionality of business properties and supporting infrastructure, generally obtaining only empirical estimates of business interruption losses. Such predictions might not be applicable to different businesses, supporting infrastructure, social systems, locations, and hazards; and they would in general not reflect possible changes in the built environment due to mitigation strategies and interventions. This paper proposes a mathematical formulation that overcomes the limitations in the current approaches. The proposed formulation models and quantifies the likelihood of business interruption with a ground-up approach by incorporating the dependency of business operations on physical structures, infrastructure and social systems. The paper illustrates the proposed formulation by investigating the business interruption of an example food retail store in Seaside, Oregon subject to a seismic hazard.
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影响因子：
5.8
作者：
J. Bai;P. Gardoni;M. B. Hueste
通讯作者：
J. Bai;P. Gardoni;M. B. Hueste
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-5973.2011.00637.x
发表时间：
2011-06-01
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Haynes, George W.;Danes, Sharon M.;Stafford, Kathryn
通讯作者：
Stafford, Kathryn
改进巨灾建模以满足业务中断保险需求
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
A. Rose;C. Huyck
通讯作者：
C. Huyck
卡特里娜飓风和经济损失：经济活动的替代衡量标准
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. A. Thompson
通讯作者：
M. A. Thompson
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
C. Murphy;P. Gardoni
通讯作者：
C. Murphy;P. Gardoni