Estimating the effects of lockdown timing on COVID-19 cases and deaths in England: A counterfactual modelling study.
Estimating the effects of lockdown timing on COVID-19 cases and deaths in England: A counterfactual modelling study.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0263432
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Tennant, Peter W. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnold, Kellyn F.;Gilthorpe, Mark S.;Alwan, Nisreen A.;Heppenstall, Alison J.;Tomova, Georgia D.;McKee, Martin;Tennant, Peter W. G.
于2019冠状病毒病大流行的第一波期间，英国经历了全球人均死亡人数最高的国家之一。这是否可以部分解释为自愿社交距离和强制性封锁措施启动相对较晚，这一点存在争议。在这项研究中，我们使用模拟来估计如果这些干预措施提前一周或两周实施，到2020年6月1日英格兰将发生的病例和死亡人数，以及对所需封锁时间的影响。我们使用3月3日至6月1日英格兰发生的第一支柱实验室确诊的COVID-19病例和相关死亡病例的官方报告数据，模拟了病例的自然（即观察到的）增长，以及如果在一两周前实施措施，将会发生的病例的反事实（即假设）增长。在每种反事实条件下，我们估计了预期死亡人数和达到6月1日自然增长下观察到的发病率所需的时间。如果提前一周采取措施，到6月1日，英格兰的新冠肺炎确诊病例将减少74%，导致医院死亡人数减少约21，000人，总死亡人数减少34，000人;完全封锁所需的时间也将减少一半，从69天减少到35天。如果提前两周采取行动，病例将减少93%，死亡人数将减少26,000至43,000人。我们的模型支持以下说法，即社交距离和封锁措施的引入相对较晚，可能增加了英格兰第一波COVID-19的规模、严重程度和持续时间。我们的研究结果强调了在病例数量呈指数级增长时迅速采取行动以尽量减少传染病传播的重要性。
During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom experienced one of the highest per-capita death tolls worldwide. It is debated whether this may partly be explained by the relatively late initiation of voluntary social distancing and mandatory lockdown measures. In this study, we used simulations to estimate the number of cases and deaths that would have occurred in England by 1 June 2020 if these interventions had been implemented one or two weeks earlier, and the impact on the required duration of lockdown. Using official reported data on the number of Pillar 1 lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 and associated deaths occurring in England from 3 March to 1 June, we modelled: the natural (i.e. observed) growth of cases, and the counterfactual (i.e. hypothetical) growth of cases that would have occurred had measures been implemented one or two weeks earlier. Under each counterfactual condition, we estimated the expected number of deaths and the time required to reach the incidence observed under natural growth on 1 June. Introducing measures one week earlier would have reduced by 74% the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in England by 1 June, resulting in approximately 21,000 fewer hospital deaths and 34,000 fewer total deaths; the required time spent in full lockdown could also have been halved, from 69 to 35 days. Acting two weeks earlier would have reduced cases by 93%, resulting in between 26,000 and 43,000 fewer deaths. Our modelling supports the claim that the relatively late introduction of social distancing and lockdown measures likely increased the scale, severity, and duration of the first wave of COVID-19 in England. Our results highlight the importance of acting swiftly to minimise the spread of an infectious disease when case numbers are increasing exponentially.
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