Recycling Potential of Plastic Resources from End-of-Life Passenger Vehicles in China.
Recycling Potential of Plastic Resources from End-of-Life Passenger Vehicles in China.
复制标题
中国报废乘用车塑料资源回收潜力
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph181910285
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发表时间：
2021-09-29
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ju Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Y;Huang S;Liu Y;Ju Y
报废（EoL）乘用车数量的快速增加导致中国产生了大量的废塑料。然而，EoL车辆回收资源的规模和效率仍然制约着汽车行业的可持续健康发展。汽车/回收行业实体的当前行为以及废物管理政策制定者的战略可能取决于可回收资源总量的潜力。为了揭示EoL乘用车中各种塑料材料的回收潜力，我们预测了2021年至2030年中国的EoL乘用车总量（使用威布尔分布）考虑乘用车拥有量（通过Gompertz模型估计），量化了对新乘用车的需求（使用其与收入水平和乘用车拥有量的非线性关系估计），并按类别和省份评估了可回收塑料。研究结果表明：（1）2030年我国EoL汽车再生塑料资源量将超过240万t，是2021年的2.5倍，再生潜力巨大;（ii）三种情景之间的差异相对较小，表明无论中国乘用车的饱和水平是高还是低，从2021年到2030年，预计可回收塑料资源将迅速增加;（iii）在省级层面，EoL乘用车塑料回收潜力与区域处理能力之间存在相当大的差距。鉴于这种巨大的潜力和区域差异，回收政策应分阶段实施，并考虑到每个地区的发展水平和回收压力。
A rapid increase in the number of end-of-life (EoL) passenger vehicles has led to a large amount of waste plastics in China. However, the scale and efficiency of recycling resources from EoL vehicles still restricts the sustainable and healthy development of the automotive industry. The current behavior of automotive/recycling industry entities, as well as the strategy of waste management policymakers, may depend on the potential of total recyclable resources. To reveal such recycling potential of various plastic materials in EoL passenger vehicles, we predicted total EoL passenger vehicles in China from 2021 to 2030 (used the Weibull distribution) considering passenger vehicle ownership (estimated by the Gompertz model), quantified the demand for new passenger vehicles (estimated using its non-linear relationship with income level and passenger vehicle ownership), and assessed the recyclable plastics by categories and by provinces. The results show that (i) the annual average recycled plastic resources from EoL vehicles would exceed 2400 thousand t in 2030, more than 2.5 times in 2021, showing a great recycling potential; (ii) the differences among the three scenarios are relatively small, indicating that no matter the saturation level of passenger vehicles in China would be high or low, a rapid increase of recyclable plastic resources can be expected from 2021 to 2030; (iii) at the provincial level, a considerable gap between the potential of recycling plastic from EoL passenger vehicles and the regional processing capacity. Given such great potential and regional differences, the recycling policies should be applied in stages and consider the development level and recovery pressure in each region.
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