How bad are life expectancy trends across the UK, and what would it take to get back to previous trends?
How bad are life expectancy trends across the UK, and what would it take to get back to previous trends?
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DOI：
10.1136/jech-2020-213870
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发表时间：
2020-09
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
McCartney G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Minton J;Fletcher E;Ramsay J;Little K;McCartney G
在英国国内，人们一直在争论预期寿命在特定的一年或三年期间是增加还是减少，但很少有人考虑总体趋势是否改变了。本文考察了2011年前后英国及其国家的预期寿命趋势发生了多大的变化。我们使用了英国国家统计局的英国及其国家的预期寿命数据。我们使用Lee的方法，基于基准期(1990-2011年和1980-2011年)的年度变化重复抽样来预测预期寿命，并将其应用于2012年以后。2012年至2018年期间预期寿命的改善持续大幅低于1980年、特别是1990年的趋势预测。到2018年，根据1990-2011年基准期，女性和男性的预期寿命分别比预期低1.22岁和1.52岁(英格兰)、1.44岁和0.95岁(北爱尔兰)、1.30岁和1.44岁(苏格兰)、1.53岁和1.63岁(威尔士)以及1.24岁和1.49岁(英国整体)。使用较长的基准期，包括1980年代期间较慢的改善速度，略微缩小了当前预期寿命与预测中位数之间的差距。未来的学术和政策重点应放在预期寿命趋势与基线预测的偏差上，而不是每年的变化上。现在迫切需要协调一致的政策重点，使预期寿命恢复到预测的趋势。
Within the UK, there has been debate on whether life expectancy is increasing or decreasing in particular single or 3-year periods, but there has been less thinking whether overall trends have changed. This paper considers the extent to which the trends in life expectancy for the UK and its nations have changed before and after 2011. We used the Office for National Statistics period life expectancy data for the UK and its nations. We used Lee’s approach to project life expectancy based on repeated sampling of year-to-year change in the baseline periods (1990–2011 and 1980–2011) and applied that to 2012 onwards. Improvements in period life expectancy were substantially and consistently lower between 2012 and 2018 than predicted from the trends from 1980 and, especially, from 1990. By 2018, life expectancy was lower than projected for females and males, respectively, by 1.22 and 1.52 years (England), 1.44 and 0.95 years (Northern Ireland), 1.30 and 1.44 years (Scotland), 1.53 and 1.63 years (Wales) and 1.24 and 1.49 years (UK overall), based on the 1990–2011 baseline period. Using a longer baseline period, which includes the slower rates of improvement during the 1980s, slightly reduces the gap between the current life expectancies and the projected medians. Future academic and policy focus should be on the deviation of the life expectancy trends from the baseline projection rather than on year-to-year variation. Concerted policy focus to return life expectancy to the projected trends is now urgently required.
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