Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the first two waves in Japan: Demographic characteristics and overdispersion.
Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the first two waves in Japan: Demographic characteristics and overdispersion.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2022.01.036
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发表时间：
2022-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Oshitani H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ko YK;Furuse Y;Ninomiya K;Otani K;Akaba H;Miyahara R;Imamura T;Imamura T;Cook AR;Saito M;Suzuki M;Oshitani H
过度分散的二次传播导致的超级传播事件在COVID-19的传播中至关重要。然而，与二次传播相关的过度分散、人口统计学和其他因素的确切水平仍然难以捉摸。在这项研究中，我们的目的是阐明的频率和模式的继发性传播的SARS-CoV-2在日本。我们分析了2020年1月至2020年8月期间的16，471例病例。我们生成了二次病例数分布，并通过拟合每个阶段的负二项分布来估计离散参数（k）。通过人口统计学和临床特征比较继发性传播的频率，使用logistic回归模型计算比值比。我们观察到，76.7%的原发病例没有产生继发病例，估计的分散参数k为0.23。初级-次级病例的人口统计学模式在不同阶段不同，20-69岁是主要年龄组。在老年人、有症状的患者和发病与确诊之间有2天或2天以上的患者中，继发性传播的比例较高。本研究估计了SARS-CoV-2的二次传播频率和二次传播人群的特征。
Super-spreading events caused by overdispersed secondary transmission are crucial in the transmission of COVID-19. However, the exact level of overdispersion, demographics, and other factors associated with secondary transmission remain elusive. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the frequency and patterns of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan. We analyzed 16,471 cases between January 2020 and August 2020. We generated the number of secondary cases distribution and estimated the dispersion parameter (k) by fitting the negative binomial distribution in each phase. The frequencies of the secondary transmission were compared by demographic and clinical characteristics, calculating the odds ratio using logistic regression models. We observed that 76.7% of the primary cases did not generate secondary cases with an estimated dispersion parameter k of 0.23. The demographic patterns of primary-secondary cases differed between phases, with 20–69 years being the predominant age group. There were higher proportions of secondary transmissions among older individuals, symptomatic patients, and patients with 2 days or more between onset and confirmation. The study showed the estimation of the frequency of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the characteristics of people who generated the secondary transmission.
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影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Imamura T;Saito M;Ko YK;Imamura T;Otani K;Akaba H;Ninomiya K;Furuse Y;Miyahara R;Sando E;Yasuda I;Tsuchiya N;National COVID-19 Cluster Response Taskforce;Suzuki M;Oshitani H
通讯作者：
Oshitani H
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2012520117
发表时间：
2020-11-03
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Galasso, Vincenzo;Pons, Vincent;Foucault, Martial
通讯作者：
Foucault, Martial
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Adam, Dillon C.;Wu, Peng;Cowling, Benjamin J.
通讯作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J.
影响因子：
19
作者：
Heavey, Laura;Casey, Geraldine;McDarby, Geraldine
通讯作者：
McDarby, Geraldine
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Lloyd-Smith JO;Schreiber SJ;Kopp PE;Getz WM
通讯作者：
Getz WM