Urban Growth Modeling Based on a Game between Farmers and Governments: Case Study of Urban Fringe in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China

Urban Growth Modeling Based on a Game between Farmers and Governments: Case Study of Urban Fringe in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China
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基于农民与政府博弈的城市增长模型:中国湖北省武汉市城市边缘区案例研究

DOI:
10.1061/(asce)up.1943-5444.0000304
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发表时间:
2016-06
影响因子:
2.5
通讯作者:
Tang Shuohua
Tang Shuohua
中科院分区:
工程技术4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Liu Yaolin;He Qingsong;Tan Ronghui;Zhou Kehao;Liu Gege;Tang Shuohua

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摘要城市系统是一个复杂的系统,土地利用变化对环境和生态系统有着重要的影响。因此,城市增长模型对于城市规划者和管理者支持可持续发展至关重要。本文提出了一个空间分解的城市增长模拟模型,其创新思想是考虑居民的行为,并结合土地开发过程中农民与政府之间的博弈探索。居民、农户和政府三类主体根据其土地用途转换偏好进行决策。通过从我国实际土地交易中抽象出的不同策略,量化了征地博弈中农民和政府的收益,并求出了博弈的纳什均衡解。那些具有混合策略纳什均衡解的单元格,其中包含大于0.5的概率。
AbstractUrban systems are complicated systems where land-use changes may significantly affect the environment and the ecosystem. Therefore, modeling urban growth is crucial for urban planners and administrators to support sustainable development. This paper provides a spatially disaggregated model for urban growth simulation that is characterized by the innovative idea that considers the behavior of residents and couples the explorations of the game between farmers and governments in the land development process. Three kinds of agents, namely, residents, farmers, and governments, make their decisions according to their land use–conversion preferences. Through the use of different strategies that are abstracted from actual land transactions in China, the payoffs to farmers and governments in the game of land expropriation are quantified and then the Nash equilibrium solution of the game is worked out. Those cells with mixed strategy Nash equilibrium solutions that include a probability of greater than 0.5 ...
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