Hydrological extremes in the Aksu-Tarim River Basin: Climatology and regime shift
Hydrological extremes in the Aksu-Tarim River Basin: Climatology and regime shift
复制标题
阿克苏-塔里木河流域的水文极端事件：气候与动态变化
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-015-2649-3
复制
发表时间：
2016-04
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Zhu Xiuhua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tao Hui;Borth Hartmut;Fraedrich Klaus;Schneidereit Andrea;Zhu Xiuhua
利用塔里木河流域39个气象站1961 - 2010年的降水资料，采用标准化降水指数（SPI）对流域水文旱涝状况进行了分类研究。应用主成分分析和方差最大旋转的SPI的时间尺度上的24个月的水文干旱的领先的时间和空间变异性进行了研究。结果表明，西部盆地的特点是由一个明显的趋势，对潮湿的条件下，在20世纪80年代中期后，这是由于增加的极端潮湿的数量，可以被认为是一个政权的转变。将分析期细分为两个部分（1961-1986年和1987-2010年），这种变化可以在降水事件概率分布函数的变化中清楚地看到。对ERA-40资料的月平均高度场和风场的综合分析表明，20世纪80年代中期以后塔里木河流域的增湿与欧洲大陆气旋性异常和北方中纬度环流异常密切相关。进一步将SPI主分量与大环流指数进行相关分析，发现塔里木河流域水文极值与极涡和副热带高压相关指数相关。
Precipitation data between 1961 and 2010 from 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin are analyzed to classify and investigate hydrological drought and wetness conditions by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The leading time and spatial variability of hydrological drought has been investigated by applying a principal component analysis and Varimax rotation to the SPI on a time scale of 24 months. The results suggest that the western basin is characterized by a clear tendency towards wetter conditions after the middle of the 1980s, which results from an increase in the number of wet extremes and can be considered as a regime shift. Subdividing the period of analysis into two parts (1961–1986 and 1987–2010) this change can be clearly seen in a shift of the probability distribution function of precipitation events. Composite analyses of monthly mean geopotential height fields and wind fields of the ERA-40 data set show that enhanced wetness in the Tarim River Basin after the middle of 1980s is closely related to cyclonic anomalies on the European continent and circulation anomalies over mid-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere. Further correlation analysis between the principal components of SPI and large circulation indices shows that hydrological extremes in the Tarim River Basin correlate with indices related to the polar vortex and subtropical high.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Conversi A;Fonda Umani S;Peluso T;Molinero JC;Santojanni A;Edwards M
通讯作者：
Edwards M
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1371
发表时间：
2007-01
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hong-zhi Wu;M. Svoboda;M. Hayes;D. Wilhite;Fujiang Wen
通讯作者：
Hong-zhi Wu;M. Svoboda;M. Hayes;D. Wilhite;Fujiang Wen
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
T. Raziei;I. Bordi;L. S. Pereira
通讯作者：
T. Raziei;I. Bordi;L. S. Pereira
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Mannig;Müller;Starke;Merkenschlager;Podzun;H. Paeth
通讯作者：
H. Paeth
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Ling Zhang;K. Fraedrich;Xiuhua Zhu;F. Sielmann;Xiefei Zhi
通讯作者：
Ling Zhang;K. Fraedrich;Xiuhua Zhu;F. Sielmann;Xiefei Zhi