Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales
Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales
复制标题
短期和长期尺度的喷发概率预测
DOI：
10.1007/s00445-012-0633-x
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
M. Bebbington
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Marzocchi;M. Bebbington
任何有效的火山风险缓解策略都需要对火山系统的未来演化及其喷发行为进行科学评估。一些人认为火山学家有责任提供简单但明确的确定性预测。然而，这种传统的思维方式并没有涉及固有的不确定性的影响，无论是随意的还是认知的，这些不确定性不可避免地存在于任何自然系统的观察、监测数据和解释中。与确定性预测相反，概率性喷发预测试图利用所有可用信息来量化这些固有的不确定性，使其可靠且信息丰富。与许多其他自然灾害一样，概率喷发预测正在成为规划合理风险缓解行动的主要科学基础：在短期（几小时到几周或几个月），它允许决策者在危机中优先考虑行动；从长远来看（几年到几十年），它是土地利用和应急规划的基本组成部分。概率喷发预测包括估计喷发事件的概率及其在复杂的多维时空震级框架中的位置。在这篇综述中，我们讨论了用于解决该问题的模型的关键发展和特征。
Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time–space–magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Lavallee, Y.;Meredith, P. G.;Kruhl, J. H.
通讯作者：
Kruhl, J. H.
DOI：
10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.01.006
发表时间：
2010-03-10
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Smith, R.;Kilburn, C. R. J.
通讯作者：
Kilburn, C. R. J.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Bell, Andrew F.;Naylor, Mark;Main, Ian G.
通讯作者：
Main, Ian G.