Assessing wetland sustainability by modeling water table dynamics under climate change
Assessing wetland sustainability by modeling water table dynamics under climate change
复制标题
通过模拟气候变化下的地下水位动态来评估湿地的可持续性
DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121293
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发表时间：
2020-08
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Xin Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jie Zhu;Xuan Wang;Qingwen Zhang;Yunlong Zhang;Dan Liu;Andong Cai;Xin Zhang
地理上孤立的湿地对气候变化的水文响应考虑不够充分，与周围高地的水文连通性较弱，但至关重要。在1950-2099年代表性浓度路径情景8.5和4.5下，通过耦合一个基于分布式过程的模型和20个环流模型，模拟了气候变化下的基本物理水文过程。提出了气候变化下湿地可持续性评价的敏感性系数。通过建立基于过程的模型和基于经验的模型，量化了地理隔离湿地水文气候相互作用的不同模型能力。结果表明，到2100年，地下水位将下降68 cm，有效水量减少289 cm。根据可持续性评估，到2100年，湿地将从基线的63%-99%逐渐变干。到2100年，湿地损失的风险将从基线的37%-93%增加。研究区湿地不可持续风险高，表明湿地水文系统对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性高。该研究对保护地理上孤立的湿地和周围高地的整个水文连续体具有广泛的意义。它还为制定受气候变化威胁的湿地适应策略提供了信息。
The hydrological responses of geographically isolated wetlands to climate change is insufficiently considered and qualified, with weak but critical hydrologic connectivity to surrounding uplands. This study simulated the essential physical hydrological processes under climate change by coupling a distributed process-based model with an assemblage of 20 general circulation models under Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 8.5 and 4.5 for 1950–2099. A susceptibility rate was proposed to assess wetland sustainability under climate change. Different model capabilities in hydro-climatic interactions of geographically isolated wetlands were quantified by developing a process-based and an empirical model. The results show that the water table will have declined 68 cm by 2100, with decreasing water availability (−289 cm). Based on the sustainability assessment, the wetland will dry with an increasing risk from baseline of 63%–99% in 2100. The risk of wetland loss will increase from baseline of 37%–93% in 2100. The high risk of unsustainable wetlands in the study area indicates high susceptibility and vulnerability of the wetland hydrological system to climate change. The study has wide implications in conserving the entire hydrological continuum of geographically isolated wetlands and surrounded uplands. It also provides information to make adaptative strategies for wetlands under threat from climate change.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
A. Botero‐Acosta;M. Chu;A. Stumpf
通讯作者：
A. Botero‐Acosta;M. Chu;A. Stumpf
影响因子：
7.2
作者：
M. V. van Vliet;M. Flörke;J. Harrison;N. Hofstra;V. Keller;F. Ludwig;J. Spanier;M. Strokal;Y. Wada;Y. Wen;Richard J. Williams
通讯作者：
M. V. van Vliet;M. Flörke;J. Harrison;N. Hofstra;V. Keller;F. Ludwig;J. Spanier;M. Strokal;Y. Wada;Y. Wen;Richard J. Williams
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
C. Krapu;Mukesh Kumar;M. Borsuk
通讯作者：
C. Krapu;Mukesh Kumar;M. Borsuk
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Yanlan Liu;Mukesh Kumar
通讯作者：
Yanlan Liu;Mukesh Kumar
DOI：
10.1002/joc.4612
发表时间：
2016-10-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Keellings, David
通讯作者：
Keellings, David