Future trends of arctic surface wind speeds and their relationship with sea ice in CMIP5 climate model simulations
Future trends of arctic surface wind speeds and their relationship with sea ice in CMIP5 climate model simulations
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CMIP5气候模型模拟中北极表面风速的未来趋势及其与海冰的关系
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-021-06071-6
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Alkama, Ramdane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vavrus, Stephen J.;Alkama, Ramdane
北极最近的气候变化迅速而戏剧性，导致了许多物质和社会后果。许多研究调查了一系列气候变量正在进行的和预测的未来变化，但令人惊讶的是，对风速的关注很少，尽管风速对海冰运动、海浪高度和海岸侵蚀具有已知的重要性。在这里，我们分析了CMIP5全球气候模式中北极地表风速的未来趋势及其与海冰覆盖的关系。在21世纪初的参考气候中，气候海冰浓度与风速之间存在着很强的反相关关系，绝大多数模式模拟了未来北冰洋海面风的普遍加强(多模式年平均趋势高达0.8m，S−1或13%)。几乎所有的模型都会在海冰覆盖的预测变化和风速之间产生相反的关系，以至于几乎完全失去冰的网格单元几乎总是经历更强的风。与秋季和冬季区域冰损失最大的情况一致，预计这两个季节未来风速的增幅最大，局部增强高达23%。与其他研究一样，更强的地面风不能归因于更紧密的气压梯度，而是由于大气稳定性减弱和地表变暖和融化时表面粗糙度减少的某种组合。风速变化的模型间传播，如两个最反差的模型结果所表示的，似乎源于对表面粗糙度处理的不同。
Recent climate change in the Arctic has been rapid and dramatic, leading to numerous physical and societal consequences. Many studies have investigated these ongoing and projected future changes across a range of climatic variables, but surprisingly little attention has been paid to wind speed, despite its known importance for sea ice motion, ocean wave heights, and coastal erosion. Here we analyzed future trends in Arctic surface wind speed and its relationship with sea ice cover among CMIP5 global climate models. There is a strong anticorrelation between climatological sea ice concentration and wind speed in the early 21st-century reference climate, and the vast majority of models simulate widespread future strengthening of surface winds over the Arctic Ocean (annual multi-model mean trend of up to 0.8 m s−1or 13%). Nearly all models produce an inverse relationship between projected changes in sea ice cover and wind speed, such that grid cells with virtually total ice loss almost always experience stronger winds. Consistent with the largest regional ice losses during autumn and winter, the greatest increases in future wind speeds are expected during these two seasons, with localized strengthening up to 23%. As in other studies, stronger surface winds cannot be attributed to tighter pressure gradients but rather to some combination of weakened atmospheric stability and reduced surface roughness as the surface warms and melts. The intermodel spread of wind speed changes, as expressed by the two most contrasting model results, appears to stem from differences in the treatment of surface roughness.
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
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S. T. Stegall;Jing Zhang
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DOI：
10.1002/jgrd.50679
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
影响因子：
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作者：
Chechin;Lüpkes;Repina;Gryanik V.M.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
S. Vavrus
通讯作者：
S. Vavrus
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Barnhart, Katherine R.;Anderson, Robert S.;Urban, Frank E.
通讯作者：
Urban, Frank E.