Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41591-022-02064-y
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发表时间：
2022-11
期刊：
影响因子：
82.9
通讯作者：
Keeling, Matt J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moore, Sam;Hill, Edward M.;Dyson, Louise;Tildesley, Michael J.;Keeling, Matt J.
严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）大流行在全世界造成了相当大的发病率和死亡率。疫苗和加强剂量提供的保护提供了一种减轻严重临床后果和死亡率的方法。然而，截至2021年底，全球疫苗分布高度异质，部分国家的成人覆盖率超过90%，而其他国家则不到2%。在这项研究中，我们使用了SARS-CoV-2动态的年龄结构模型，与2021年来自152个国家的国家数据相匹配，以调查试图解决这种不平等的不同潜在疫苗共享协议的全球影响。我们量化了实施的疫苗推广策略对SARS-CoV-2传播的影响，随后的全球疾病负担和新变种的出现。我们发现，更大的疫苗共享将降低全球疾病的总负担，而在以前疫苗丰富的国家，任何相关的感染增加都可以通过减少放松非药物干预来缓解。我们的研究结果强化了与未来流行病相关的健康信息，即疫苗分配与财富而不是需求成比例，可能对所有人都有害。对几种全球COVID-19分布情景的回顾性模拟表明，公平和利他的疫苗共享策略可以大幅降低SARS-CoV-2感染和相关死亡率的全球负担。
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The protection provided by vaccines and booster doses offered a method of mitigating severe clinical outcomes and mortality. However, by the end of 2021, the global distribution of vaccines was highly heterogeneous, with some countries gaining over 90% coverage in adults, whereas others reached less than 2%. In this study, we used an age-structured model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, matched to national data from 152 countries in 2021, to investigate the global impact of different potential vaccine sharing protocols that attempted to address this inequity. We quantified the effects of implemented vaccine rollout strategies on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the subsequent global burden of disease and the emergence of novel variants. We found that greater vaccine sharing would have lowered the total global burden of disease, and any associated increases in infections in previously vaccine-rich countries could have been mitigated by reduced relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results reinforce the health message, pertinent to future pandemics, that vaccine distribution proportional to wealth, rather than to need, may be detrimental to all. Retrospective simulation of several global COVID-19 distribution scenarios shows that equitable and altruistic vaccine sharing strategies could have substantially reduced the global burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated mortality.
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abe2803
发表时间：
2020-09-11
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Emanuel EJ;Persad G;Kern A;Buchanan A;Fabre C;Halliday D;Heath J;Herzog L;Leland RJ;Lemango ET;Luna F;McCoy MS;Norheim OF;Ottersen T;Schaefer GO;Tan KC;Wellman CH;Wolff J;Richardson HS
通讯作者：
Richardson HS
孟加拉国成年人口对 COVID-19 疫苗的犹豫：一项全国横断面调查。
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Hossain MB;Alam MZ;Islam MS;Sultan S;Faysal MM;Rima S;Hossain MA;Mamun AA
通讯作者：
Mamun AA
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Li, Qun;Guan, Xuhua;Feng, Zijian
通讯作者：
Feng, Zijian
DOI：
10.1111/1468-0009.12503
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
The Milbank quarterly
影响因子：
--
作者：
Eccleston-Turner M;Upton H
通讯作者：
Upton H
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Dyson L;Hill EM;Moore S;Curran-Sebastian J;Tildesley MJ;Lythgoe KA;House T;Pellis L;Keeling MJ
通讯作者：
Keeling MJ