Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate.
Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep38752
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发表时间：
2016-12-09
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Marsh R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Skliris N;Zika JD;Nurser G;Josey SA;Marsh R
水循环从地球仪的干旱地区到湿润地区的变化将对人类产生深远的影响。当空气变暖时，它的持水能力以克劳修斯-克拉珀龙速率（CC，约7% °C−1）增加。表层海洋盐度观测表明，在最近的全球变暖之后，水循环已经放大到接近CC，这一结果与最先进的气候模型不符。在这里，我们采用了一种基于水质量转换理论的方法，用于从三维盐度的变化中推断水循环的变化。利用全深度盐度观测，我们推断1950-2010年水循环放大了3.0 ± 1.6% °C−1。气候模式在水循环放大（4.3 ± 2.0% °C−1）方面与观测结果相一致，大大低于CC，增加了对温室气体排放情景下总水循环变化预测的信心。
A change in the cycle of water from dry to wet regions of the globe would have far reaching impact on humanity. As air warms, its capacity to hold water increases at the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (CC, approximately 7% °C−1). Surface ocean salinity observations have suggested the water cycle has amplified at close to CC following recent global warming, a result that was found to be at odds with state-of the art climate models. Here we employ a method based on water mass transformation theory for inferring changes in the water cycle from changes in three-dimensional salinity. Using full depth salinity observations we infer a water cycle amplification of 3.0 ± 1.6% °C−1 over 1950–2010. Climate models agree with observations in terms of a water cycle amplification (4.3 ± 2.0% °C−1) substantially less than CC adding confidence to projections of total water cycle change under greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
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