National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt.
National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt.
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国家水，食品和贸易建模框架：埃及案。
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.197
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发表时间：
2018-10-15
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hoekstra AY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abdelkader A;Elshorbagy A;Tuninetti M;Laio F;Ridolfi L;Fahmy H;Hoekstra AY
本文介绍了用于分析国家尺度真实和虚拟水流的建模框架。该框架有两个组成部分：(1) 模拟农业、工业和市政用水以及可用水和土地资源的国家水模型； (2) 国际虚拟水贸易模型，反映与农作物和动物产品贸易相关的国家虚拟水进出口情况。该国家水、食品和贸易 (NWFT) 建模框架适用于埃及这个缺水国家和世界上最大的小麦进口国。埃及的粮食和水缺口以及该国的粮食（虚拟水）进口量是在基准期（1986-2013 年）内进行估算的，并根据四种情景预测到 2050 年。由于人口急剧增长和水资源有限，埃及的粮食和水缺口正在迅速扩大。 NWFT 建模框架显示了人口动态、不同部门用水的关系及其对埃及粮食缺口和水自给自足的复合影响。敏感性分析表明，为了解决埃及的水和粮食问题，旨在降低人口增长的教育、健康和意识计划等非水解决方案将成为传统水资源开发解决方案的重要补充。国家和全球模型都预测了埃及粮食缺口的类似趋势。 NWFT 建模框架可以轻松适应其他国家和地区。管理国家水资源时应考虑虚拟水贸易。非水基解决方案可以解决缺水国家的水问题。埃及的水和粮食缺口预计未来将急剧扩大。全球和国家模型都预测了埃及进口的相似模式。 NWFT建模框架可以轻松应用于世界上任何国家。
This paper introduces a modeling framework for the analysis of real and virtual water flows at national scale. The framework has two components: (1) a national water model that simulates agricultural, industrial and municipal water uses, and available water and land resources; and (2) an international virtual water trade model that captures national virtual water exports and imports related to trade in crops and animal products. This National Water, Food & Trade (NWFT) modeling framework is applied to Egypt, a water-poor country and the world's largest importer of wheat. Egypt's food and water gaps and the country's food (virtual water) imports are estimated over a baseline period (1986–2013) and projected up to 2050 based on four scenarios. Egypt's food and water gaps are growing rapidly as a result of steep population growth and limited water resources. The NWFT modeling framework shows the nexus of the population dynamics, water uses for different sectors, and their compounding effects on Egypt's food gap and water self-sufficiency. The sensitivity analysis reveals that for solving Egypt's water and food problem non-water-based solutions like educational, health, and awareness programs aimed at lowering population growth will be an essential addition to the traditional water resources development solution. Both the national and the global models project similar trends of Egypt's food gap. The NWFT modeling framework can be easily adapted to other nations and regions. Virtual water trade should be considered when managing national water resources. Non-water based solutions can remediate water problems in water-scarce countries. Egypt's water and food gaps are projected to aggressively widen in the future. Both the global and national models projected similar patterns of Egypt's imports. NWFT modeling framework can be easily applied to any country in the world.
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影响因子：
2.6
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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