Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming
Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming
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变暖对区域降水变化的贡献及其极地放大模式
DOI：
10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hahn, Lily C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bonan, David B.;Feldl, Nicole;Zelinka, Mark D.;Hahn, Lily C.
据预测，极地地区的降水量将因温室气体浓度的增加而发生最大的相对变化，在那里，降水量的绝对大幅度增加与当今气候下的降水率小相吻合。然而，这种扩大的原因仍有争议。在这里，我们使用大气能量收支分解区域降水变化的气候模式下的温室气体强迫大气辐射反馈，干静态能量通量的变化，和表面感热通量的变化的贡献。极地放大的相对降水变化被证明是普朗克反馈的结果，当与更大的极地变暖相结合时，有利于大量的大气辐射冷却，平衡增加潜热释放从降水。干静能流辐散的变化对极放大型有一定的贡献。在北极，对极地放大响应的其他贡献来自云的反馈，在南极，来自云和水蒸气的反馈。在极地地区的相对降水变化的模型间传播的主要贡献者也是普朗克反馈，直减率反馈和干静态能量通量散度变化起次要作用。对于所有区域，辐射反馈和影响模式间扩散的干静态能量通量散度变化之间存在很强的协方差。这些结果意味着，约束区域降水变化，特别是在极地地区，将需要约束不仅个人的反馈，但也辐射反馈和大气能量传输之间的协方差。
The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport.
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影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Schiro, Kathleen A.;Su, Hui;Ahmed, Fiaz;Dai, Ni;Singer, Clare E.;Gentine, Pierre;Elsaesser, Gregory S.;Jiang, Jonathan H.;Choi, Yong-Sang;Neelin, J. David
通讯作者：
Neelin, J. David
DOI：
10.5194/esd-8-323-2017
发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
Earth System Dynamics Discussions
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Salzmann
通讯作者：
M. Salzmann
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
M. Winton
通讯作者：
M. Winton
由于冰盖地形较高，南极大陆气候敏感性较低
影响因子：
9
作者：
Hansi K. A. Singh;L. Polvani
通讯作者：
L. Polvani
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
C. Tebaldi;J. Arblaster
通讯作者：
C. Tebaldi;J. Arblaster