A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift.
A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/17513758.2013.801523
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Feng Z
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alfaro-Murillo JA;Towers S;Feng Z
我们描述了一个多株易感感染的确定性模型的流感亚型在人口中的传播。该模型包括由于抗原漂移而出现的新菌株，以及对相关循环菌株再感染的部分免疫。它还包括可选的病毒传播率的季节性强迫，这使得温带和热带之间的比较成为可能。我们的模型是能够再现观察到的定性模式，如在温带地区的整体年度爆发，减少规模和增加频率的爆发在热带地区，和先驱波现象。我们模拟抗原漂移的方法是新颖的，对该模型的进一步修改可能有助于提高对复杂流感动力学的理解。AMS科目分类：92 D30; 92 D15
We describe a multiple strain Susceptible Infected Recovered deterministic model for the spread of an influenza subtype within a population. The model incorporates appearance of new strains due to antigenic drift, and partial immunity to reinfection with related circulating strains. It also includes optional seasonal forcing of the transmission rate of the virus, which allows for comparison between temperate zones and the tropics. Our model is capable of reproducing observed qualitative patterns such as the overall annual outbreaks in the temperate region, a reduced magnitude and an increased frequency of outbreaks in the tropics, and the herald wave phenomenon. Our approach to modelling antigenic drift is novel and further modifications of this model may help improve the understanding of complex influenza dynamics. AMS Subject Classification: 92D30; 92D15
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
5
作者：
Alonso, Wladimir J.;Viboud, Cecile;Miller, Mark A.
通讯作者：
Miller, Mark A.
影响因子：
2
作者：
Lin, J;Andreasen, V;Levin, SA
通讯作者：
Levin, SA
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Rambaut, Andrew;Pybus, Oliver G.;Holmes, Edward C.
通讯作者：
Holmes, Edward C.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Russell, Colin A.;Jones, Terry C.;Smith, Derek J.
通讯作者：
Smith, Derek J.
影响因子：
5
作者：
GLEZEN, WP;COUCH, RB;SIX, HR
通讯作者：
SIX, HR