Predicting Parasite Dynamics in Mixed-Use Trans-Himalayan Pastures to Underpin Management of Cross-Transmission Between Livestock and Bharal.
Predicting Parasite Dynamics in Mixed-Use Trans-Himalayan Pastures to Underpin Management of Cross-Transmission Between Livestock and Bharal.
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DOI：
10.3389/fvets.2021.714241
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Morgan ER
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Khanyari M;Suryawanshi KR;Milner-Gulland EJ;Dickinson E;Khara A;Rana RS;Rose Vineer H;Morgan ER
多用途景观的复杂性要求采用复杂的方法来处理疾病传播风险。我们通过社会生态学的视角探索了印度北部跨喜马拉雅山脉的胃肠道线虫（GINs）感染，将寄生虫传播模型与实地调查和当地知识相结合，并评估了潜在干预措施的可能有效性。蓝羊（一种本地野生食草动物）和牲畜全年共用牧场，牲畜通常表现出感染GINs的迹象。虽然野生和家养有蹄类动物都有GINs感染，但卵数表明巴拉尔的寄生虫负担明显高于牲畜。然而，由于牲畜密度较高，它们对牧场虫卵和感染幼虫总数的贡献更大。牧民还报告说，他们的绵羊和山羊出现了与寄生虫感染相符的健康问题。模型模拟表明，该系统的牧场传染性受历史牧场利用和夏季幼虫发育逐渐积累的影响，没有明显的短期传播爆发点。因此，预测最有效的干预措施是利用春季温度作为线索，在家畜中进行早期寄生虫抑制。牲畜产蛋暂停1个月可能导致牧场年感染幼虫总量减少76%，这可能有利于牲畜和巴拉尔的健康。模拟表明，过去33年的气候变化并未导致GINs传播潜力的总体变化，但在驱动牧场传染性方面，温度对降水的相对影响有所增加。我们的研究提供了一种可转移的多管齐下的方法来调查疾病传播，以支持牧民的生计和保护野生有蹄类动物。
The complexities of multi-use landscapes require sophisticated approaches to addressing disease transmission risks. We explored gastro-intestinal nematode (GINs) infections in the North India Trans-Himalayas through a socio-ecological lens, integrating parasite transmission modelling with field surveys and local knowledge, and evaluated the likely effectiveness of potential interventions. Bharal (blue sheep; Pseudois nayaur), a native wild herbivore, and livestock share pasture year-round and livestock commonly show signs of GINs infection. While both wild and domestic ungulates had GINs infections, egg counts indicated significantly higher parasite burdens in bharal than livestock. However, due to higher livestock densities, they contributed more to the total count of eggs and infective larvae on pasture. Herders also reported health issues in their sheep and goats consistent with parasite infections. Model simulations suggested that pasture infectivity in this system is governed by historical pasture use and gradually accumulated larval development during the summer, with no distinct short-term flashpoints for transmission. The most effective intervention was consequently predicted to be early-season parasite suppression in livestock using temperature in spring as a cue. A 1-month pause in egg output from livestock could lead to a reduction in total annual availability of infective larvae on pasture of 76%, potentially benefitting the health of both livestock and bharal. Modelling suggested that climate change over the past 33 years has led to no overall change in GINs transmission potential, but an increase in the relative influence of temperature over precipitation in driving pasture infectivity. Our study provides a transferable multi-pronged approach to investigating disease transmission, in order to support herders' livelihoods and conserve wild ungulates.
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影响因子：
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