Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1371/journal.pone.0016591

发表时间：

2011-01-31

期刊：

PloS one

影响因子：

3.7

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

综合性期刊3区

文献类型：

作者：

Bajardi P;Poletto C;Ramasco JJ;Tizzoni M;Colizza V;Vespignani A

来源链接：

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3031602/?report=classic

2009年H1N1流感出现后，一些国家在疫情爆发的早期阶段采取了与旅行有关的控制措施，试图遏制或减缓其国际传播。这些管制措施沿着自我实施的旅行限制，导致国际警报发出后，进出墨西哥的国际航空交通量下降了约40%。然而，这些限制措施并没有达到遏制的目的，病毒在短时间内就达到了大流行的程度。在衡量流动和旅行限制的价值和效力时，关键是要依靠流行病模型，这些模型综合了人类流动的广泛特征和公共卫生组织应对流行病的许多选择。在这里，我们提出了一个全面的计算和理论研究的作用，旅行限制在阻止和延迟流行病，通过使用一个模型，明确整合航空旅行和短程流动性数据与高分辨率的人口数据在世界各地，并验证了从2009年H1N1大流行的数据积累。我们通过评估流动性限制的潜在影响来探索2009年H1N1大流行的替代方案，这些限制的程度和在大流行时间轴中的位置各不相同。我们提供了一个定量的讨论不同的流动性限制所获得的延迟和遏制传染病爆发的可能性在其源头，确认有限的价值和国际旅行限制的可行性。这些结果合理化的理论框架特征的入侵动态的流行病在集合种群水平。

After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.