Support for Vladimir Putin in Russia's neighbors: Survey evidence from an endorsement experiment in six post-Soviet countries
Support for Vladimir Putin in Russia's neighbors: Survey evidence from an endorsement experiment in six post-Soviet countries
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俄罗斯邻国对弗拉基米尔·普京的支持率：来自六个后苏联国家的支持实验的调查证据
DOI：
10.1016/j.polgeo.2023.103014
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发表时间：
2024
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Bakke, Kristin M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
O'Loughlin, John;Linke, Andrew M.;Toal, Gerard;Bakke, Kristin M.
2022年2月24日，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，再次引起了人们对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)在前苏联“近邻”国家的地缘政治目标的关注。虽然普京的行为在西方受到了广泛谴责，但前苏联国家的反应更为复杂。文章利用2019年末至2020年初具有代表性的全国性调查，报告了一项背书实验的结果，该实验旨在衡量普京在前苏联地区六个国家(乌克兰、摩尔多瓦、哈萨克斯坦、白俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚和亚美尼亚)的支持率。对普京的直接询问显示，在8420名受访者中，有一半的人说他们“完全不信任”，尽管各国的看法有很大不同。考虑到人们对普京看法的敏感性，代言实验可以得出更准确的结果。关于谁支持普京的五种期望在社会人口控制的模型中进行了测试。性格更封闭的受访者对弗拉基米尔·普京的支持率明显更高，这是我们的关键考验。那些对科学知识持怀疑态度的人和那些持有传统观点的人(通过一个关于婚姻中父权统治的问题来衡量)也更有可能支持普京。相比之下，支持阴谋论的人和对政治不感兴趣的人对普京的支持并没有明显增加。国家一级的结果与整体模型的结果大体一致，但显示出一些有趣的差异。总体而言，弗拉基米尔·普京在白俄罗斯、亚美尼亚和哈萨克斯坦的信任度和支持率高于乌克兰、格鲁吉亚和摩尔多瓦，但所有国家的受访者在支持或反对普京立场时都以符合其个人特征的方式行事。
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 has again drawn attention to the geopolitical aims of President Vladimir Putin in the states of the former Soviet Union, the ‘Near Abroad’. While Putin's actions have been widely condemned in the West, the reaction among the former Soviet states has been more mixed. Using representative national surveys from late 2019 - early 2020, the article reports the results of an endorsement experiment to gage the support that Putin had in six countries of the former Soviet space (Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Georgia and Armenia). Direct questioning about Putin revealed that half of the 8420 respondents said that they had ‘no trust at all’ though views varied a lot by country. Given the sensitivity around perceptions of Putin, an endorsement experiment elicits more accurate results. Five expectations of who supports Putin are tested in models with socio-demographic controls. Respondents with more close-minded personalities show significantly more support for Vladimir Putin, our key test. People who are skeptical of scientific expertise and those with traditional views (measured by a question about patriarchal dominance in marriages) are also more likely to support Putin. In contrast, support for Putin is not significantly greater by those who subscribe to conspiracy theories, and by those with little interest in politics. Country level results are generally in line with the results of the overall model, but demonstrate some interesting variation. Vladimir Putin overall has higher trust and support in Belarus, Armenia, and Kazakhstan than in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova but the respondents in all countries behave in a manner consistent with their personal traits in endorsing or opposing Putin's positions.
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