Diversification dynamics of total-, stem-, and crown-groups are compatible with molecular clock estimates of divergence times.
Diversification dynamics of total-, stem-, and crown-groups are compatible with molecular clock estimates of divergence times.
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DOI:
10.1126/sciadv.abf2257
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发表时间:
2021-06
期刊:
影响因子:
13.6
通讯作者:
Donoghue PCJ
中科院分区:
文献类型:
--
作者:
Beavan AJS;Pisani D;Donoghue PCJ
A wide range of divergence times is supported by birth-death models under constant rates of speciation and extinction. Molecular evolutionary time scales are expected to predate the fossil evidence, but, particularly for major evolutionary radiations, they can imply extremely protracted stem lineages predating the origin of living clades, leading to claims of systematic overestimation of divergence times. We use macroevolutionary birth-death models to describe the range of total-group and crown-group ages expected under constant rates of speciation and extinction. We extend current predictions on origination times for crown- and total-groups, and extinction of stem-groups, demonstrating that there is broad variance in these predictions. Under constant rates of speciation and extinction, we show that the distribution of expected arthropod total-group ages is consistent with molecular clock estimates. The fossil record cannot be read literally, and our results preclude attempts to interpret the antiquity of clades based on the co-occurrence of stem- and crown-representatives.
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