Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.
Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0081648
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Zachos JC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hansen J;Kharecha P;Sato M;Masson-Delmotte V;Ackerman F;Beerling DJ;Hearty PJ;Hoegh-Guldberg O;Hsu SL;Parmesan C;Rockstrom J;Rohling EJ;Sachs J;Smith P;Steffen K;Van Susteren L;von Schuckmann K;Zachos JC
我们利用正在进行的观测和古气候资料评估全球变暖对气候的影响。我们利用地球测量的能量不平衡、古气候数据以及全球碳循环和温度的简单表示来确定稳定气候和避免对当今年轻人、子孙后代和自然造成潜在灾难性影响所需的减排。工业时代化石燃料排放的累积上限为~ 500千兆吨碳当量，生物圈和土壤中储存的总量为100千兆吨碳当量，这将使气候接近人类和其他物种所适应的全新世范围。累积排放~ 1000 GtC，有时与2°C的全球变暖有关，将刺激“缓慢”反馈，最终导致3-4°C的变暖，并带来灾难性后果。为了恢复地球的能量平衡和避免海洋吸收热量，必须迅速减少排放，否则实际上肯定会产生不可逆转的影响。鉴于目前对后果的了解，化石燃料的高排放继续下去，将是一种极其明智的代际不公正行为。负责任的政策制定需要提高碳排放价格，这将阻止大多数剩余的煤炭和非常规化石燃料的排放，并逐步减少传统化石燃料的排放。
We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Alexander, LV;Zhang, X;Vazquez-Aguirre, JL
通讯作者：
Vazquez-Aguirre, JL
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0608998104
发表时间：
2007-04-17
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Bala, G.;Caldeira, K.;Mirin, A.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Barker, Paul M.;Dunn, Jeff R.;Wijffels, Susan E.
通讯作者：
Wijffels, Susan E.
DOI：
10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-10
发表时间：
2012-04-04
影响因子：
0.5
作者：
Ackerman, Frank;Stanton, Elizabeth A.
通讯作者：
Stanton, Elizabeth A.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Barriopedro, David;Fischer, Erich M.;Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo
通讯作者：
Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo