Climate and the spread of COVID-19.
Climate and the spread of COVID-19.
复制标题
气候与COVID-19的传播。
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-87692-z
复制
发表时间：
2021-04-27
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Bloom DE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen S;Prettner K;Kuhn M;Geldsetzer P;Wang C;Bärnighausen T;Bloom DE
对世界地图的视觉检查显示，2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在靠近赤道的国家不太流行，那里的热量和湿度往往更高。科学家们不同意如何解释这一观察结果，因为COVID-19和气候条件之间的关系可能会受到许多因素的干扰。我们将一个国家每百万居民中确诊的COVID-19病例的对数与该国距赤道的距离进行回归，控制了关键的混杂因素：航空旅行、车辆集中度、城市化、COVID-19检测强度、手机使用率、收入、老年抚养比和医疗支出。截至2021年1月9日，绝对纬度上升一度与每百万居民病例增加4.3%相关（p值< 0.001）。我们的研究结果意味着，一个距离赤道1000公里的国家，每百万居民的病例数可能会减少33%。由于地球在春分和夏至之间与太阳的夹角约为23.5°，因此可以预期两个假设的国家之间每百万居民的病例数差异为64%，这两个国家的气候差异与两个相邻季节相似。根据我们的结果，预计各国的新冠肺炎病例将在夏季下降，并在冬季重新出现。然而，我们的结果并不意味着这种疾病会在夏季消失，也不会影响赤道附近的国家。相反，夏季更高的温度和更强烈的紫外线辐射可能会支持公共卫生措施，以遏制SARS-CoV-2。
Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress the logarithm of confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country’s distance from the equator, controlling for key confounding factors: air travel, vehicle concentration, urbanization, COVID-19 testing intensity, cell phone usage, income, old-age dependency ratio, and health expenditure. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 4.3% increase in cases per million inhabitants as of January 9, 2021 (p value < 0.001). Our results imply that a country, which is located 1000 km closer to the equator, could expect 33% fewer cases per million inhabitants. Since the change in Earth’s angle towards the sun between equinox and solstice is about 23.5°, one could expect a difference in cases per million inhabitants of 64% between two hypothetical countries whose climates differ to a similar extent as two adjacent seasons. According to our results, countries are expected to see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter. However, our results do not imply that the disease will vanish during summer or will not affect countries close to the equator. Rather, the higher temperatures and more intense UV radiation in summer are likely to support public health measures to contain SARS-CoV-2.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138778
发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
The Science of the total environment
影响因子：
--
作者：
Qi, Hongchao;Xiao, Shuang;Zhang, Zhijie
通讯作者：
Zhang, Zhijie
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Hanefeld J;Mayhew S;Legido-Quigley H;Martineau F;Karanikolos M;Blanchet K;Liverani M;Yei Mokuwa E;McKay G;Balabanova D
通讯作者：
Balabanova D
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Shi, Peng;Dong, Yinqiao;Xi, Shuhua
通讯作者：
Xi, Shuhua
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Stewart, Patrick D. Shaw
通讯作者：
Stewart, Patrick D. Shaw
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Menebo, Mesay Moges
通讯作者：
Menebo, Mesay Moges