Gravity and scaling laws of city to city migration.
Gravity and scaling laws of city to city migration.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0199892
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Bishop SR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Prieto Curiel R;Pappalardo L;Gabrielli L;Bishop SR
人口迁移模型为预测移民流动、衡量政策的影响、确定物质和政治摩擦的代价等提供了强大的工具。在这里，我们分析了美国个人从城市到城市的迁移，发现城市到城市的迁移遵循比例定律，因此城市规模是决定个人是否决定迁移的重要因素，而来源和目的地的城市规模在目的地的选择中起着关键作用。我们观察到，来自小城市的个人倾向于更频繁地迁移，倾向于迁移到类似规模的城市，而来自大城市的个人不那么频繁地迁移，但当他们迁移时，他们倾向于迁移到其他大城市。在这些发现的基础上，我们建立了一个标度模型，该模型将内部迁移描述为一个两步决策过程，表明它可以部分解释仅基于城市规模的迁移流量。然后，我们考虑了距离的影响，并结合观测到的标度图案和迁移的重力定律构建了重力标度模型。结果表明，标度律是人类迁徙的一个重要特征，包含标度律可以克服人类迁徙的重力和辐射模型的限制。
Models of human migration provide powerful tools to forecast the flow of migrants, measure the impact of a policy, determine the cost of physical and political frictions and more. Here, we analyse the migration of individuals from and to cities in the US, finding that city to city migration follows scaling laws, so that the city size is a significant factor in determining whether, or not, an individual decides to migrate and the city size of both the origin and destination play key roles in the selection of the destination. We observe that individuals from small cities tend to migrate more frequently, tending to move to similar-sized cities, whereas individuals from large cities do not migrate so often, but when they do, they tend to move to other large cities. Building upon these findings we develop a scaling model which describes internal migration as a two-step decision process, demonstrating that it can partially explain migration fluxes based solely on city size. We then consider the impact of distance and construct a gravity-scaling model by combining the observed scaling patterns with the gravity law of migration. Results show that the scaling laws are a significant feature of human migration and that the inclusion of scaling can overcome the limits of the gravity and the radiation models of human migration.
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