How drivers decide whether to get a fuel cell vehicle: An ethnographic decision model

How drivers decide whether to get a fuel cell vehicle: An ethnographic decision model
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驾驶员如何决定是否购买燃料电池汽车:人种学决策模型

DOI:
10.1016/j.ijhydene.2020.12.042
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发表时间:
2021
影响因子:
7.2
通讯作者:
Kuby, Michael
Kuby, Michael
中科院分区:
工程技术2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Stotts, Rhian;Lopez-Jaramillo, Oscar G.;Kelley, Scott;Krafft, Aimee;Kuby, Michael

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本文开发并测试了一个民族志决策模型(EDM)的氢燃料电池汽车(FCV)的采用与加州居民,无论是实际采用FCV或“认真考虑”这样做,然后才决定反对it.We开发了一个初始模型,从25个半结构化访谈中,受访者自我描述他们的决策过程进行了采访。我们在第二轮53次结构化面试中反复测试和完善了该模型。最终模型包括评估FCV采用可行性的第一阶段和将FCV与其他车辆类型进行比较的第二阶段。该模型最终正确预测了样本中86.8%的病例。在第一阶段,受访者更愿意满足他们对家附近的主要加油站的需求,但也有相当多的人愿意依靠附近或上班途中或其他目的地的加油站。大多数司机需要一个方便的备用站和一种管理长途旅行的手段。车辆尺寸选项排除了一些受访者。没有人因为行驶里程不足而拒绝采用FCV。在第二阶段,几乎所有的驱动程序都进行了某种成本比较,尽管考虑的因素差异很大。大多数人选择了他们认为成本较低的选择,尽管一些FCV采用者和非采用者愿意为他们更喜欢的选择支付更多费用。EDM是一种很有前途的定性研究方法,可以深入了解人们如何决定是否购买替代燃料汽车。
This article develops and tests an ethnographic decision model (EDM) of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) adoption using interviews with California residents that either actually adopted an FCV or “seriously considered” doing so before deciding against it. We developed an initial model from 25 semi-structured interviews in which respondents self-described their decision-making processes. We iteratively tested and refined the model in a second round of 53 structured interviews. The final model consists of a first stage that assesses FCV adoption feasibility and a second stage that compares FCVs to other vehicle types. The model ultimately correctly predicts 86.8% of cases in the sample. In the first stage, respondents preferred to satisfy their need for a primary refueling station near home but a substantial number were willing to rely on a station near or on the way to work or other destination. Most drivers required a convenient backup station and a means of managing long-distance trips. Vehicle size options eliminated a few respondents. None rejected FCV adoption due to insufficient driving range. In the second stage, nearly all drivers engaged in some kind of cost comparison, though the factors considered varied greatly. Most opted for what they viewed as the less costly option, although a few FCV adopters and non-adopters were willing to pay more for their more preferred option. EDM is a promising qualitative research method for generating insights into how people navigate the decision whether or not to get an alternative-fuel vehicle.
预测汽车类型选择的分层决策过程模型
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