Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.
Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41591-022-01807-1
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发表时间：
2022-07
期刊：
影响因子：
82.9
通讯作者：
Ratmann, Oliver
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brizzi, Andrea;Whittaker, Charles;Servo, Luciana M. S.;Hawryluk, Iwona;Prete Jr, Carlos A.;de Souza, William M.;Aguiar, Renato S.;Araujo, Leonardo J. T.;Bastos, Leonardo S.;Blenkinsop, Alexandra;Buss, Lewis F.;Candido, Darlan;Castro, Marcia C.;Costa, Silvia F.;Croda, Julio;de Souza Santos, Andreza Aruska;Dye, Christopher;Flaxman, Seth;Fonseca, Paula L. C.;Geddes, Victor E. V.;Gutierrez, Bernardo;Lemey, Philippe;Levin, Anna S.;Mellan, Thomas;Bonfim, Diego M.;Miscouridou, Xenia;Mishra, Swapnil;Monod, Melodie;Moreira, Filipe R. R.;Nelson, Bruce;Pereira, Rafael H. M.;Ranzani, Otavio;Schnekenberg, Ricardo P.;Semenova, Elizaveta;Sonnabend, Raphael;Souza, Renan P.;Xi, Xiaoyue;Sabino, Ester C.;Faria, Nuno R.;Bhatt, Samir;Ratmann, Oliver
自2020年底以来，令人担忧的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 （SARS-CoV-2）伽玛变体在巴西迅速传播，造成了大量感染和死亡浪潮。在这里，我们使用了2020年1月20日至2021年7月26日期间因疑似或确诊的2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）住院后的个人患者记录，记录了伽玛病毒在14个州首府传播后医院死亡率的暂时、全面冲击，在此期间，通常有一半以上的70岁及以上住院患者死亡。我们发现，在发现伽玛病毒之前，COVID-19院内死亡率也存在这种广泛的冲击。使用贝叶斯死亡率模型，我们发现巴西COVID-19住院死亡率的地理和时间波动主要与地理不平等和医疗保健能力短缺有关。我们估计，如果没有大流行前的地域不平等和大流行的医疗压力，14个城市医院中大约一半的COVID-19死亡是可以避免的。我们的研究结果表明，对医疗资源、医疗优化和大流行防范的投资对于最大限度地减少SARS-CoV-2等高传染性和致命病原体造成的全人群死亡率和发病率至关重要，尤其是在低收入和中等收入国家。对巴西个人患者记录的分析表明，COVID-19死亡率的广泛冲击与大流行前的地理不平等以及大流行期间医疗保健能力的短缺有关。
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant of concern has spread rapidly across Brazil since late 2020, causing substantial infection and death waves. Here we used individual-level patient records after hospitalization with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between 20 January 2020 and 26 July 2021 to document temporary, sweeping shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed the spread of Gamma across 14 state capitals, during which typically more than half of hospitalized patients aged 70 years and older died. We show that such extensive shocks in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed before the detection of Gamma. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we found that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil’s COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates were primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We estimate that approximately half of the COVID-19 deaths in hospitals in the 14 cities could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population-wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Analysis of individual-level patient records from Brazil reveals that the extensive shocks in COVID-19 mortality rates are associated with pre-pandemic geographic inequities as well as shortages in healthcare capacity during the pandemic.
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影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Clemens SAC;Folegatti PM;Emary KRW;Weckx LY;Ratcliff J;Bibi S;De Almeida Mendes AV;Milan EP;Pittella A;Schwarzbold AV;Sprinz E;Aley PK;Bonsall D;Fraser C;Fuskova M;Gilbert SC;Jenkin D;Kelly S;Kerridge S;Lambe T;Marchevsky NG;Mujadidi YF;Plested E;Ramasamy MN;Simmonds P;Golubchik T;Voysey M;Pollard AJ;AMPHEUS Project;Oxford COVID Vaccine Trial Team
通讯作者：
Oxford COVID Vaccine Trial Team
SARS-COV-2血统的估计可传播和影响B.1.1.7在英国。
DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Davies NG;Abbott S;Barnard RC;Jarvis CI;Kucharski AJ;Munday JD;Pearson CAB;Russell TW;Tully DC;Washburne AD;Wenseleers T;Gimma A;Waites W;Wong KLM;van Zandvoort K;Silverman JD;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium;Diaz-Ordaz K;Keogh R;Eggo RM;Funk S;Jit M;Atkins KE;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
DOI：
10.1590/0102-311x00208720
发表时间：
2020-01-01
期刊：
Cadernos de Saúde Pública
影响因子：
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作者：
Albuquerque, Mariana Vercesi de;Ribeiro, Luis Henrique Leandro
通讯作者：
Ribeiro, Luis Henrique Leandro
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Castro, Marcia C.;Kim, Sun;Singer, Burton H.
通讯作者：
Singer, Burton H.
COVID-19 后巴西的预期寿命缩短。
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Castro MC;Gurzenda S;Turra CM;Kim S;Andrasfay T;Goldman N
通讯作者：
Goldman N