Regional Opportunities for China to Go Low-Carbon: Results from the REEC Model

Regional Opportunities for China to Go Low-Carbon: Results from the REEC Model
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中国低碳发展的区域机遇:REEC 模型的结果

DOI:
10.5547/01956574.37.si1.hdua
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发表时间:
2016-01
期刊:
影响因子:
2.9
通讯作者:
Fan, Ying
Fan, Ying
中科院分区:
工程技术4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Duan, Hongbo;Zhu, Lei;Kumbaroglu, Guerkan;Fan, Ying

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本文的目的是(i)引入多区域动态排放交易模型,以及(ii)从中国国家和区域的角度研究排放交易计划(ETS)对能源技术长期发展的潜在影响。该模型的建立是经济、能源、环境系统结合的全球综合评估模型中国化的有益尝试。模拟结果表明:(1)对于大多数地区来说,ETS比统一碳税(HCT)在减少CO2排放方面更有效,但对于整个国家来说可能并非如此,这意味着这两种方案在总体碳减排方面差异不大; (2) 从长远来看,碳税政策对于碳排放交易来说是一种更具成本效益的遏制二氧化碳排放的选择; (3)ETS和纯粹的碳税都没有为无碳能源技术的突破提供足够的激励,这说明配合一些其他支持政策,如补贴和研发投资,对于扩大利基市场至关重要; (4) 在碳排放交易体系的背景下,非化石技术在卖方地区的扩散效果比在买方地区的扩散效果要好得多。
The intention of this paper is to (i) introduce a multi-regional dynamic emissions trading model and (ii) examine the potential impact of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) on the long-term evolution of energy technologies from national and regional perspectives in China. The establishment of this model is a salutary attempt to Sinicize the global integrated assessment model that combines economy, energy, and environment systems. The simulation results indicate that: (1) for majority of regions, ETS is more effective in cutting CO2 emissions than a harmonized carbon tax (HCT), but this might not be true for the entire country, which means that these two options have little difference in overall carbon reduction; (2) carbon tax policy is a more cost-effective option in curbing CO2 with respect to ETS in the long run; (3) neither ETS nor pure carbon tax provide enough incentives for the breakthrough of carbon-free energy technologies, which illustrates that matching with some other support policies, such as subsidies and R&D investment, is essential to extend the niche market; and (4) In the context of ETS, the diffusion of non-fossil technologies in regions that act as sellers performs much better than this diffusion in the buyer regions.
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