Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.
Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12335
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发表时间：
2013-12
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Hendy EJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Couce E;Ridgwell A;Hendy EJ
大气中二氧化碳浓度的上升通过海洋表面温度的升高和海洋酸化，给世界热带珊瑚礁带来了空间上分散的压力。我们展示了这两个压力源如何结合联合收割机来改变全球栖息地适合浅珊瑚礁生态系统，使用统计生物气候包络模型，而不是基于任何先验假设的生理公差或固定阈值的预测。我们采用两种不同的建模方法（最大熵和提升回归树），具有两个复杂程度（一个是简化和减少环境变量的版本）。我们的模型预测了许多最重要和生物多样性最丰富的热带珊瑚地区，特别是在印度太平洋中部，栖息地适宜性显着下降。这伴随着有利条件的温度驱动的向极范围扩展，到2070年加速到每十年40-70公里。我们发现，海洋酸化对确定未来栖息地适宜性的影响小于变暖，其有害影响均匀地集中在5°和20°纬度之间的两个半球。与预期相反，海洋表面温度上升和酸化的综合影响几乎不会导致大西洋大部分地区和目前被认为是热带珊瑚“边缘”的地区（如赤道太平洋东部）未来栖息地适宜性的退化。这些结果与过去温暖时期范围扩张的化石证据一致。此外，简化的模型是特别敏感的短期温度变化和他们的预测相关以及漂白事件的报告位置。我们的方法提供了新的见解与大气中二氧化碳的上升对潜在的未来栖息地的两个全球环境压力的相对影响，但更好地了解过去和目前的控制珊瑚礁生态系统是必不可少的保护和管理下不断变化的气候。
Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40–70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered ‘marginal’ for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.
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