Evaluating the impact of flexible alcohol trading hours on violence: an interrupted time series analysis.
Evaluating the impact of flexible alcohol trading hours on violence: an interrupted time series analysis.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0055581
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Wiebe DJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Humphreys DK;Eisner MP;Wiebe DJ
2005年11月24日，英格兰和威尔士政府取消了对有执照的场所可以销售酒精的时间的监管限制。这项研究通过将《许可法》(2003)的实施视为酒精政策的自然实验来检验可用性理论。采用中断时间序列设计来估计该法案对曼彻斯特市(人口464,200)暴力的直接和延迟影响。我们收集了2004年2月1日至2007年12月31日期间警方记录的暴力、抢劫和总犯罪率。事件按周汇总，总共产生204个观察结果(干预前95个，干预后109个)。二次分析检查了日常暴力模式的变化。干预前后事件分为4个3小时段，分别为18：00~20：59、21：00~23.59、00：00~02：59、03：00~05：59。分析发现，没有证据表明《许可法》(2003年)影响了暴力的总量。然而，对夜间暴力的分析发现，周末暴力事件会逐渐永久地转移到夜间较晚的时间。结果估计在03：00至06：00之间的初始增长率为27.5%(ω = 0.2433，95%CI = 0.06，0.42)，到研究结束时增加到36%(δ = −0.897，95%CI = −1.02，−0.77)。这项研究没有发现任何证据表明，增加酒精实际供应的国家政策会影响暴力的总数量。然而，有证据表明，这项政策可能与凌晨(凌晨3点)暴力模式的变化有关。至上午6时)。
On November 24th 2005, the Government of England and Wales removed regulatory restrictions on the times at which licensed premises could sell alcohol. This study tests availability theory by treating the implementation of Licensing Act (2003) as a natural experiment in alcohol policy. An interrupted time series design was employed to estimate the Act’s immediate and delayed impact on violence in the City of Manchester (Population 464,200). We collected police recorded rates of violence, robbery, and total crime between the 1st of February 2004 and the 31st of December 2007. Events were aggregated by week, yielding a total of 204 observations (95 pre-, and 109 post-intervention). Secondary analysis examined changes in daily patterns of violence. Pre- and post-intervention events were separated into four three-hour segments 18∶00–20∶59, 21∶00–23.59, 00∶00–02∶59, 03∶00–05∶59. Analysis found no evidence that the Licensing Act (2003) affected the overall volume of violence. However, analyses of night-time violence found a gradual and permanent shift of weekend violence into later parts of the night. The results estimated an initial increase of 27.5% between 03∶00 to 06∶00 (ω = 0.2433, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.42), which increased to 36% by the end of the study period (δ = −0.897, 95% CI = −1.02, −0.77). This study found no evidence that a national policy increasing the physical availability of alcohol affected the overall volume of violence. There was, however, evidence suggesting that the policy may be associated with changes to patterns of violence in the early morning (3 a.m. to 6 a.m.).
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Durnford AJ;Perkins TJ;Perry JM
通讯作者：
Perry JM
影响因子：
6
作者：
Graham, K;Leonard, KE;Single, E
通讯作者：
Single, E
影响因子：
16.4
作者：
CAMPBELL, DT
通讯作者：
CAMPBELL, DT
DOI：
10.15288/jsa.2002.63.591
发表时间：
2002-09-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF STUDIES ON ALCOHOL
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chikritzhs, T;Stockwell, T
通讯作者：
Stockwell, T
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Humphreys, David K.;Eisner, Manuel P.
通讯作者：
Eisner, Manuel P.