An extended period of elevated influenza mortality risk follows the main waves of influenza pandemics.
An extended period of elevated influenza mortality risk follows the main waves of influenza pandemics.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.115975
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发表时间：
2023-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Angelopoulos K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schroeder M;Lazarakis S;Mancy R;Angelopoulos K
鉴于大流行病对人口健康和社会经济结果的广泛影响，了解大流行病引起的死亡风险的程度和演变至关重要。我们实证研究流感大流行的主要浪潮后，流感死亡率风险的持续性和规模，定量分析，这是需要了解的真正规模的大流行引起的风险。我们从市政公共卫生记录中提供的证据表明，英国8个大城市在1918 - 19年大流行的主要浪潮之后发生了多次复发性疫情，我们使用美国同期的数据以及英格兰和威尔士1838 - 2000年期间多次流感大流行的数据证实了这一模式。为了估计流感大流行后潜在死亡风险的持续性和规模，我们将死亡率的随机过程建模为一系列有界帕累托分布，其尾部指数随时间推移而演变。在大流行和地区之间保持一致，我们发现流感死亡风险在主要大流行波之后的大约二十年内仍然很高，然后更快地收敛到背景流感死亡率，放大了大流行的影响。尽管在持续时间上存在共性，但各城市的风险持续性和规模存在异质性，这表明免疫力和社会经济条件的影响。
Understanding the extent and evolution of pandemic-induced mortality risk is critical given its wide-ranging impacts on population health and socioeconomic outcomes. We examine empirically the persistence and scale of influenza mortality risk following the main waves of influenza pandemics, a quantitative analysis of which is required to understand the true scale of pandemic-induced risk. We provide evidence from municipal public health records that multiple recurrent outbreaks followed the main waves of the 1918-19 pandemic in eight large cities in the UK, a pattern we confirm using data for the same period in the US and data for multiple influenza pandemics during the period 1838–2000 in England and Wales. To estimate the persistence and scale of latent post-pandemic influenza mortality risk, we model the stochastic process of mortality rates as a sequence of bounded Pareto distributions whose tail indexes evolves over time. Consistently across pandemics and locations, we find that influenza mortality risk remains elevated for around two decades after the main pandemic waves before more rapid convergence to background influenza mortality, amplifying the impact of pandemics. Despite the commonality in duration, there is heterogeneity in the persistence and scale of risk across the cities, suggesting effects of both immunity and socioeconomic conditions.
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作者：
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作者：
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第二个大流行：通过欧洲的Covid-19检查结构不平等。
DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114634
发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
Social science & medicine (1982)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fiske A;Galasso I;Eichinger J;McLennan S;Radhuber I;Zimmermann B;Prainsack B
通讯作者：
Prainsack B