The Indian Ocean dipole and cholera incidence in Bangladesh: a time-series analysis.
The Indian Ocean dipole and cholera incidence in Bangladesh: a time-series analysis.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1002302
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发表时间：
2011-02
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Moji K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hashizume M;Faruque AS;Terao T;Yunus M;Streatfield K;Yamamoto T;Moji K
据报告，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）影响孟加拉国地方性霍乱的年际变化。印度洋偶极子（IOD）是一种海洋-大气耦合变化的气候模式，对孟加拉湾区域海洋气候和印度季风降雨的影响越来越引起人们的兴趣。我们探讨了IOD和孟加拉国霍乱患者数量之间的关系，控制ENSO的影响。进行时间序列回归。负二项模型用于估计达卡和Matlab（1993-2007年）每月因霍乱就诊的次数与控制ENSO指数[NINO 3，衡量Niño 3区域平均海表温度（SST）]的偶极子模式指数（ESTA）、季节和年际变化之间的关联。还研究了霍乱病例与孟加拉湾北方SST和海面高度（SSH）之间的关系。从当前月份到3个月前，平均感染率增加0.1个单位与达卡霍乱发病率增加2.6%（95%置信区间（CI），0.0-5.2; p = 0.05）和Matlab霍乱发病率增加6.9%（95% CI，3.2-10.8; p < 0.01）相关。达卡的霍乱发病率在4-7个月前下降0.1个单位后增加了2.4%（95%CI，0.0-5.0; p = 0.06）。在校正SSH后，这两个地区的霍乱医院就诊与0-3个月前的SST呈正相关（p < 0.01）。这些研究结果表明，负和正偶极子事件都与孟加拉国霍乱发病率的增加有关，并具有不同的时间滞后。
It has been reported that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the interannual variation of endemic cholera in Bangladesh. There is increased interest in the influence of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), a climate mode of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability, on regional ocean climate in the Bay of Bengal and on Indian monsoon rainfall. We explored the relationship between the IOD and the number of cholera patients in Bangladesh, controlling for the effects of ENSO. Time-series regression was performed. Negative binomial models were used to estimate associations between the monthly number of hospital visits for cholera in Dhaka and Matlab (1993–2007) and the dipole mode index (DMI) controlling for ENSO index [NINO3, a measure of the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3 region], seasonal, and interannual variations. Associations between cholera cases and SST and sea surface height (SSH) of the northern Bay of Bengal were also examined. A 0.1-unit increase in average DMI during the current month through 3 months before was associated with an increase in cholera incidence of 2.6% [(95% confidence interval (CI), 0.0–5.2; p = 0.05] in Dhaka and 6.9% (95% CI, 3.2–10.8; p < 0.01) in Matlab. Cholera incidence in Dhaka increased by 2.4% (95% CI, 0.0–5.0; p = 0.06) after a 0.1-unit decrease in DMI 4–7 months before. Hospital visits for cholera in both areas were positively associated with SST 0–3 months before, after adjusting for SSH (p < 0.01). These findings suggest that both negative and positive dipole events are associated with an increased incidence of cholera in Bangladesh with varying time lags.
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影响因子：
2
作者：
DURRLEMAN, S;SIMON, R
通讯作者：
SIMON, R
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Ashok, K;Guan, ZY;Yamagata, T
通讯作者：
Yamagata, T
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Hong, Chi-Cherng;Lu, Mong-Ming;Kanamitsu, Masao
通讯作者：
Kanamitsu, Masao
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Ajayamohan, R. S.;Rao, Suryachandra A.
通讯作者：
Rao, Suryachandra A.
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Koelle, K;Rod贸, X;Mostafa, G
通讯作者：
Mostafa, G