A Bayesian Modelling Framework for Integration of Ecosystem Services into Freshwater Resources Management.
A Bayesian Modelling Framework for Integration of Ecosystem Services into Freshwater Resources Management.
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DOI：
10.1007/s00267-022-01595-x
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发表时间：
2022-04
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Kelly-Quinn M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bruen M;Hallouin T;Christie M;Matson R;Siwicka E;Kelly F;Bullock C;Feeley HB;Hannigan E;Kelly-Quinn M
关于生态对多种应激源的反应以及生态系统服务(ES)交付的后果的模型很少。本文描述了一种结合流域和水质模型输出、数据和专家知识来构建BBN的方法，以支持ES集成到水资源管理中。它提出了解释专家知识的“小组”研讨会方法，并分析了专家之间的一致和不同之处。该模型是为四个选定的生态系统开发的，用于评估与不变、河岸管理和牲畜数量减少或增加有关的管理选择的后果。与无变化相比，河岸管理和牲畜数量的减少在不同程度上改善了所调查的ES。对BBN中专家信息的敏感性分析表明，专家之间的分歧最大的主要是小概率情况，因此对结果的影响很小。相反，在我们的应用程序中，专家之间的最佳一致往往发生在更高概率、更有可能的情况下。这对于实际使用这种类型的模型来支持流域管理决策具有重要意义。管理措施、水质和生态反应之间关系的复杂性，以及由此引起的生态系统的变化，在当前绝不能成为作出决定的障碍。多种应激源的相互作用使情况进一步复杂化。然而，管理决策通常涉及解决方案的整体性质，而不是其详细设计，一旦选择了解决方案的性质，例如牲畜管理或河岸措施，或两者兼而有之。
Models of ecological response to multiple stressors and of the consequences for ecosystem services (ES) delivery are scarce. This paper describes a methodology for constructing a BBN combining catchment and water quality model output, data, and expert knowledge that can support the integration of ES into water resources management. It proposes “small group” workshop methods for elucidating expert knowledge and analyses the areas of agreement and disagreement between experts. The model was developed for four selected ES and for assessing the consequences of management options relating to no-change, riparian management, and decreasing or increasing livestock numbers. Compared with no-change, riparian management and a decrease in livestock numbers improved the ES investigated to varying degrees. Sensitivity analysis of the expert information in the BBN showed the greatest disagreements between experts were mainly for low probability situations and thus had little impact on the results. Conversely, in our applications, the best agreement between experts tended to occur for the higher probability, more likely, situations. This has implications for the practical use of this type of model to support catchment management decisions. The complexity of the relationship between management measures, the water quality and ecological responses and resulting changes in ES must not be a barrier to making decisions in the present time. The interactions of multiple stressors further complicate the situation. However, management decisions typically relate to the overall character of solutions and not their detailed design, which can follow once the nature of the solution has been chosen, for example livestock management or riparian measures or both.
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Bruins, Randall J. F.;Canfield, Timothy J.;Schaefer, Ralf B.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002
发表时间：
2014-05-01
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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