The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19.
The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19.
复制标题
COVID-19的最佳锁定强度。
DOI：
10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102489
复制
发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Wrzaczek S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Caulkins JP;Grass D;Feichtinger G;Hartl RF;Kort PM;Prskawetz A;Seidl A;Wrzaczek S
各国应对COVID-19大流行的主要方式之一是封锁部分经济部门，以减少传染性传播。这在失去工作、失去经济生产力和失去自由方面代价高昂。因此，我们有必要问这样一个问题：封锁的最佳强度是什么？在疫情期间，这种强度应该如何动态变化？本文探讨了这样的问题与最优控制模型，识别特定的风险，当感染率激增超过医疗保健系统的能力，以提供适当的护理。分析表明，出现了四种广泛的战略，从只能“抚平曲线”的短暂封锁到防止感染激增超出医疗系统能力的持续封锁。在这个模型中，最好有两个不同的封锁期，因此在最初的限制解除后返回封锁并不一定是失败的标志。在如何平衡健康和经济危害的判断上，相对微小的变化就能极大地改变哪种策略占上风。事实上，有一组参数，其中两种甚至三种不同的策略在相同的初始条件下都能表现得同样好；它们对应于所谓的三重斯基巴点。在状态变量中，轨迹的表现可能是高度非线性的，因此在不同的时间，最优失业率可能是低、中或高，但不会介于两者之间。这些复杂的动态从模拟COVID-19流行病中自然产生，并在政策辩论中显示出一定程度的谦逊。即使是对问题的经济学和流行病学有共同理解的人，也可能倾向于截然不同的政策。相反，支持截然不同的政策并不表明存在根本分歧。
One of the principal ways nations are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is by locking down portions of their economies to reduce infectious spread. This is expensive in terms of lost jobs, lost economic productivity, and lost freedoms. So it is of interest to ask: What is the optimal intensity with which to lockdown, and how should that intensity vary dynamically over the course of an epidemic? This paper explores such questions with an optimal control model that recognizes the particular risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system’s capacity to deliver appropriate care. The analysis shows that four broad strategies emerge, ranging from brief lockdowns that only “smooth the curve” to sustained lockdowns that prevent infections from spiking beyond the healthcare system’s capacity. Within this model, it can be optimal to have two separate periods of locking down, so returning to a lockdown after initial restrictions have been lifted is not necessarily a sign of failure. Relatively small changes in judgments about how to balance health and economic harms can alter dramatically which strategy prevails. Indeed, there are constellations of parameters for which two or even three of these distinct strategies can all perform equally well for the same set of initial conditions; these correspond to so-called triple Skiba points. The performance of trajectories can be highly nonlinear in the state variables, such that for various times , the optimal unemployment rate could be low, medium, or high, but not anywhere in between. These complex dynamics emerge naturally from modeling the COVID-19 epidemic and suggest a degree of humility in policy debates. Even people who share a common understanding of the problem’s economics and epidemiology can prefer dramatically different policies. Conversely, favoring very different policies is not evident that there are fundamental disagreements.
登录
查看更多内容
Covid-19锁定应该继续多长时间？
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Caulkins J;Grass D;Feichtinger G;Hartl R;Kort PM;Prskawetz A;Seidl A;Wrzaczek S
通讯作者：
Wrzaczek S
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Goenka, Aditya;Liu, Lin;Nguyen, Manh-Hung
通讯作者：
Nguyen, Manh-Hung
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Aspri A;Beretta E;Gandolfi A;Wasmer E
通讯作者：
Wasmer E
DOI：
10.1001/jama.2020.6775
发表时间：
2020-01-01
期刊：
JAMA, Journal of the American Medical Association
影响因子：
--
作者：
Richardson, Safiya;Hirsch, Jamie S.;,
通讯作者：
,
影响因子：
9.4
作者：
Köhler J;Schwenkel L;Koch A;Berberich J;Pauli P;Allgöwer F
通讯作者：
Allgöwer F