Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i

Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i
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海平面上升风险与沿海财产价值的相互作用:夏威夷欧胡岛的案例研究

DOI:
10.1007/s10584-023-03602-4
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发表时间:
2023
期刊:
影响因子:
4.8
通讯作者:
Newfield, Conrad
Newfield, Conrad
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Tarui, Nori;Urbanski, Seth;Lam, Quang Loc;Coffman, Makena;Newfield, Conrad

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气候变化引起的海平面上升(SLR)将影响一系列沿海资产,并促使世界各地做出关于沿海土地利用的艰难决定。最近的几项研究发现,当前和预计的SLR与相对较低的属性值有关。我们通过对夏威夷奥肯的案例研究为这一不断增长的研究做出了贡献,奥肯以其海滩和宝贵的沿海真实的地产而闻名。我们利用一个数据集,解包多种类型的SLR曝光和沿海地块属性。我们应用2019年奥廷加岛的房地产交易数据,调查当前和预期SLR风险对住宅物业价格的影响。我们发现,暴露的物业已经经历了交易价格的下降,在9%至14%,归因于对长期洪水(而不是季节性洪水)的预期。价格下跌主要是多户住宅,而不是单户住宅。住宅物业对SLR的市场反应对沿海管理战略具有重要意义,特别是撤退计划的可行性和时机。
Climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR) will affect a range of coastal assets and prompt difficult decisions about coastal land use across the world. Several recent studies find that current and projected SLR is associated with relatively lower property values. We contribute to this growing body of research with a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, which is famed for its beaches as well as valuable coastal real estate. We leverage a dataset that unpacks multiple types of SLR exposure and coastal parcel attributes. We apply property transaction data for the island of O‘ahu through 2019 to investigate the effect of current and expected SLR exposure on residential property prices. We find that exposed properties have already experienced declines in transaction prices, at 9 to 14%, attributed to expectations of exposure to chronic inundation (as opposed to seasonal flooding). The price declines are mainly for multi-dwelling homes as opposed to single family homes. The market response of residential properties to SLR has important implications for coastal management strategies, in particular the viability and timing of programs for retreat.
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