A generic approach for the development of short-term predictions of Escherichia coli and biotoxins in shellfish.
A generic approach for the development of short-term predictions of Escherichia coli and biotoxins in shellfish.
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DOI：
10.3354/aei00265
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发表时间：
2018-04-19
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Shutler JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schmidt W;Evers-King HL;Campos CJA;Jones DB;Miller PI;Davidson K;Shutler JD
贝类中的微生物污染或海洋生物毒素浓度升高可能导致贝类水产养殖捕捞暂时关闭，导致水产养殖业的经济损失，并可能降低消费者对贝类产品的信心。我们提出了一种预测贝类中大肠杆菌和生物毒素（冈田酸及其衍生物甲藻毒素和果胶毒素）浓度短期变化的方法。该方法进行了评估2对比贝类收获区。通过元数据分析和使用环境数据（现场，卫星观测和气象临近预报和预测），确定了关键的环境驱动因素，并用于开发模型来预测E。贝类体内的大肠杆菌和生物毒素浓度。使用独立的数据集对模型进行训练和评估，并基于表现出最低均方根误差的模型来识别最佳模型。最好的生物毒素模型是能够提供1周的预测准确度为86%，0%的假阳性率和0%的错误发现率（n = 78观察）时，用于预测关闭的贝类床，由于生物毒素。最好的E大肠杆菌模型被用来预测的贝类床的欧洲卫生分类的准确性分别为99%（n = 107观察）和98%（n = 63观察）的海湾（圣奥斯特尔湾）和河口（Turnaware酒吧）。这种通用方法可以根据容易获得的环境数据和观察结果，对特定农场进行高准确度的短期预测。
Microbiological contamination or elevated marine biotoxin concentrations within shellfish can result in temporary closure of shellfish aquaculture harvesting, leading to financial loss for the aquaculture business and a potential reduction in consumer confidence in shellfish products. We present a method for predicting short-term variations in shellfish concentrations of Escherichia coli and biotoxin (okadaic acid and its derivates dinophysistoxins and pectenotoxins). The approach was evaluated for 2 contrasting shellfish harvesting areas. Through a meta-data analysis and using environmental data (in situ, satellite observations and meteorological nowcasts and forecasts), key environmental drivers were identified and used to develop models to predict E. coli and biotoxin concentrations within shellfish. Models were trained and evaluated using independent datasets, and the best models were identified based on the model exhibiting the lowest root mean square error. The best biotoxin model was able to provide 1 wk forecasts with an accuracy of 86%, a 0% false positive rate and a 0% false discovery rate (n = 78 observations) when used to predict the closure of shellfish beds due to biotoxin. The best E. coli models were used to predict the European hygiene classification of the shellfish beds to an accuracy of 99% (n = 107 observations) and 98% (n = 63 observations) for a bay (St Austell Bay) and an estuary (Turnaware Bar), respectively. This generic approach enables high accuracy short-term farm-specific forecasts, based on readily accessible environmental data and observations.
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影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Farrell, Hazel;Gentien, Patrick;Raine, Robin
通讯作者：
Raine, Robin
DOI：
10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00520.x
发表时间：
2011-04-01
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Bougeard, Morgane;Le Saux, Jean-Claude;Pommepuy, Monique
通讯作者：
Pommepuy, Monique
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1619575114
发表时间：
2017-05-09
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Gobler, Christopher J.;Doherty, Owen M.;Litaker, R. Wayne
通讯作者：
Litaker, R. Wayne
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Escalera, Laura;Reguera, Beatriz;Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel
通讯作者：
Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel
DOI：
10.1186/1476-069x-10-54
发表时间：
2011-06-06
期刊：
Environmental health : a global access science source
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hinder SL;Hays GC;Brooks CJ;Davies AP;Edwards M;Walne AW;Gravenor MB
通讯作者：
Gravenor MB