An evolutionary game modeling to assess the effect of border enforcement measures and socio-economic cost: Export-importation epidemic dynamics.
An evolutionary game modeling to assess the effect of border enforcement measures and socio-economic cost: Export-importation epidemic dynamics.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110918
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发表时间：
2021-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Tanimoto J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kabir KA;Chowdhury A;Tanimoto J
在新型冠状病毒SARS-CoV-19之后，世界经历了一个严重威胁全球公共卫生的严峻形势。在全球人口中，旅行限制、边境执法措施、检疫和隔离规定被实施，以控制和限制传染病的传播。实施和执行各种控制政策的决定应基于现有的现实证据和理论预测。此外，由于经济负担和人民的沮丧情绪，全球各国实施的强制隔离和严格封锁措施从长远来看可能是不可持续的。在演化博弈理论框架下，考虑传染病源国和邻近无病国两体系统，建立了一个新的行为动力学输出-输入传染病模型.该模型首先应用于中国、意大利和韩国的COVID-19原始数据，并通过具有等效拟合优度的一致拟合结果进行观察。然后，根据适当的参数估计数据。在这些参数设置的驱动下，考虑到标准化的人口，数值分析和流行病学探索，这项工作进一步阐明了检疫政策，医疗设施，社会经济成本和公众反遵从效应的实质性影响。大量的数值分析表明，用于个人层面的资金作为“紧急救济包”可以减少感染，提高检疫政策的成功。我们的研究结果还表明，只有在成本较低的情况下，控制边界测量才能在疾病的最终流行阶段发挥作用。
In the wake of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-19, the world has undergone a critical situation in which grave threats to global public health emerged. Among human populations across the planet, travel restraints, border enforcement measures, quarantine, and isolation provisions were implemented to control and limit the spread of the contagion. Decisions on implementing and enforcing various control policies should be determined based on available real-world evidence and theoretical prediction. Further, countries around the globe-imposed force-quarantine and strict lockdown against the spreading could be unsustainable in the long run because of economic burden and people's frustration. This study proposes a novel exportation- importation epidemic model associated with behavioral dynamics under the evolutionary game theory by considering the two-body system: a source country of a contagious disease and a neighboring disease-free state. The model is first applied to the original COVID-19 data in China, Italy, and the Republic of Korea (ROK) and observed through consistent fitting results with equivalent goodness-of-fit. Then, the data are estimated per the appropriate parameters. Driven by these parametric settings and considering the normalized population, the numerical analysis, and epidemiological exploration, this work further elucidates the substantial impact of quarantine policies, healthcare facilities, socio-economic cost, and the public counter-compliance effect. Extensive numerical analysis shows that funds spent on the individual level as “emergency relief-package” can reduce the infection and improve quarantine policy success. Our results also explore that controlling border measurement can work well in the final epidemic stage of disease only if the cost is low.
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