Strategically designed marine reserve networks are robust to climate change driven shifts in population connectivity
Strategically designed marine reserve networks are robust to climate change driven shifts in population connectivity
复制标题
战略性设计的海洋保护区网络能够应对气候变化驱动的人口连通性变化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
C. Costello
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Rassweiler;Elena Ojea;C. Costello
海洋保护区可以成为有效的养护和渔业管理工具，特别是当其设计考虑到空间人口连通性时。然而，气候变化预计将显著改变许多海洋物种的幼虫连通性，质疑今天设计的海洋保护区在未来是否仍然有效。在这里，我们预测了备选的海洋保护区设计将如何影响渔业产量。我们将一系列基于经验的未来幼虫扩散情景应用于目前通过美国南加州近岸水域海洋保护区管理的七个物种的渔业模型。我们表明，针对未来气候条件优化的储量网络与针对当前条件设计的网络有很大不同。然而，重新设计的好处是有限的：为当前条件设计的一组储备通常产生的结果在重新设计的最佳网络的10%以内，并且远远优于随意设计的网络。因此，今天投资于海洋保护区网络的战略设计可能会带来回报，即使这些网络没有被修改以跟上环境变化。
Marine reserves can be effective conservation and fishery management tools, particularly when their design accounts for spatial population connectivity. Yet climate change is expected to significantly alter larval connectivity of many marine species, questioning whether marine reserves designed today will still be effective in the future. Here we predict how alternative marine reserve designs will affect fishery yields. We apply a range of empirically-grounded scenarios for future larval dispersal to fishery models of seven species currently managed through marine reserves in the nearshore waters in Southern California, USA. We show that networks of reserves optimized for future climate conditions differ substantially from networks designed for today’s conditions. However, the benefits of redesign are modest: a set of reserves designed for current conditions commonly produces outcomes within 10% of the best redesigned network, and far outperforms haphazardly designed networks. Thus, investing in the strategic design of marine reserves networks today may pay dividends even if the networks are not modified to keep up with environmental change.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1701262114
发表时间：
2017-06
期刊：
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Roberts;Bethan C. O’Leary;D. McCauley;P. Cury;C. Duarte;J. Lubchenco;D. Pauly;A. Saenz-Arroyo;U. R. Sumaila;R. Wilson;B. Worm;J. Castilla
通讯作者：
C. Roberts;Bethan C. O’Leary;D. McCauley;P. Cury;C. Duarte;J. Lubchenco;D. Pauly;A. Saenz-Arroyo;U. R. Sumaila;R. Wilson;B. Worm;J. Castilla
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Smale, Dan A.;Wernberg, Thomas;Moore, Pippa J.
通讯作者：
Moore, Pippa J.