Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years.
Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2
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发表时间：
2023-04-01
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Stokes, C. R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jordan, James R.;Miles, B. W. J.;Gudmundsson, G. H.;Jamieson, S. S. R.;Jenkins, A.;Stokes, C. R.
东南极冰盖（EAIS）目前被相对凉爽的水所包围，但气候变化有可能通过温暖的修改环极深水（mCDW）侵入大陆架来增加基底融化。在这里，我们使用冰盖模型表明，在目前的海洋制度下，只有有限的侵入mCDW，EAIS可能会获得质量在未来200年内，由于增加降水从变暖的大气超过增加冰排放由于冰架融化。然而，如果海洋制度成为占主导地位的更大的mCDW入侵，EAIS将有一个负的质量平衡，在这段时间内贡献高达48毫米的SLE。我们的模型发现，乔治五世陆地特别容易受到海洋引起的融化的影响。随着海洋变暖，我们还发现，中等RCP4.5排放情景可能会导致比高RCP8.5排放情景更负的质量平衡，因为在中等RCP4.5排放情景中，由于大气变暖而增加的降水量和由于海洋变暖而增加的冰排放量之间的相对差异更负。东南极冰盖目前被相对较冷的海水包围，但海洋动力学的变化可能会导致未来大陆架上的海水变暖。这有可能大大增加其未来的海平面贡献。
The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the current ocean regime, with only limited intrusions of mCDW, the EAIS will likely gain mass over the next 200 years due to the increased precipitation from a warming atmosphere outweighing increased ice discharge due to ice-shelf melting. However, if the ocean regime were to become dominated by greater mCDW intrusions, the EAIS would have a negative mass balance, contributing up to 48 mm of SLE over this time period. Our modelling finds George V Land to be particularly at risk to increased ocean induced melting. With warmer oceans, we also find that a mid range RCP4.5 emissions scenario is likely to result in a more negative mass balance than a high RCP8.5 emissions scenario, as the relative difference between increased precipitation due to a warming atmosphere and increased ice discharge due to a warming ocean is more negative in the mid range RCP4.5 emission scenario. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is currently surrounded by relatively cool water but changes in ocean dynamics may lead to warmer ocean water on the shelf in the future. This has the potential to dramatically increase its future sea level contribution.
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